Chipper's eighth inning blast pushes Braves past Cubs

Another dramatic homerun stole the show on Wednesday night. This time, it was Chipper Jones hitting a two-run homer to center field in the bottom of the eighth to drive in the game-tying and -winning runs against the Chicago Cubs. John Grabow took the loss for the North Siders.

Ryan Dempster (RHP, CHC) was dominant in the loss, striking out nine in just six innings of work while walking just two. A Jason Heyward double in the second inning drove in the only run that Dempster allowed.

Jair Jurrjens' performance was less impressive. He walked two, struck out just as many, and allowed two runs in 5 IP. Screaming Indian favorite Kris Medlen worked two solid innings of relief (2 H, 2 K, 0 BB, 0 R). Peter Moylan picked up a vulture win, and Billy Wagner was lights-out in the ninth, recording all three outs via the K.

The three game series concludes on Thursday with a showdown between Randy Wells and Tommy Hanson. Advantage: Braves.

NOTE: I had previously written that Hit Tracker recorded Jason Heyward's Opening Day homerun at 433 feet. They are now saying that it was 476 feet, with a speed off the bat of 120 MPH. Yowza. Needless to say, it was upgraded from "Plenty" to "No Doubt".

Jason Heyward fever drowns out Lowe's awfulness

On any other day, Derek Lowe's dreadful outing (6 IP, 3 BB, 2 K, 5 ER) would have had Braves fans everywhere in a miserable mood on Opening Day. But April 5, 2010 was not your average opening day. It was Jason Heyward Day.

Heyward's first inning three-run homerun off of Carlos Zambrano in his first MLB plate appearance is already the stuff of legend. The towering shot to right center traveled 433 feet, registering as "Plenty" on HitTracker's scale of Plenty, Just Enough, and Lucky. Watch the homerun here.

Heyward's blast was part of the Braves' 16-5 rout of the Chicago Cubs, led (along with Heyward's 4 RBI) by a 2-run single and a 3-run double by Yunel Escobar. Escobar and Heyward accounted for 5 of the 6 runs plated in the Braves' big first inning, in which they regained the lead for good after Derek Lowe gave up a three-run homer to Marlon Byrd in the top of the first.

The Braves are off on Tuesday but resume action at Turner Field on Wednesday when Jair Jurrjens will face off against Ryan Dempster.

Braves Opening Day Preview: In the Field

If you had told me five months ago that Derek Lowe (RHP, Braves) was going to be the 2010 opening day starter for the Atlanta Braves, I would have enjoyed a hearty laugh at your expense. Javier Vazquez and Tommy Hanson were easily the Braves' best pitchers in 2009 while Derek Lowe fell well short of the expectations set by his $60 million contract and seemed a safe bet to be traded. My, how things have changed.

Since Javier Vazquez was traded to the Yankees, Derek Lowe has gone from clubhouse pariah to number one starter. The Braves' newfound confidence in Lowe was buoyed by a dominant spring (18K/2BB in 22 IP), and Lowe will need to build on that success to regain his 2008 form.

In 2009, Lowe struck out more than a batter fewer per nine innings (5.13) and walked more than one additional batter (2.91) than in his last year as a Dodger. His groundball rate also dipped from 60% to 56%. A strong debut against the Cubs would go a long way toward alleviating some of the buyer's remorse that Frank Wren and the Braves were feeling this offseason.

This is how the Cubs' opening day lineup has fared against RHPs:

(SS) Ryan Theriot: .283/.347/.351
(RF) Kosuke Fukudome: .262/.372/.417
(1B) Derrek Lee: .285/.364/.505
(3B) Aramis Ramirez: .284/.341/.493
(CF) Marlon Byrd: .282/.342/.416
(LF) Alfonso Soriano: .278/.320/.508
(2B) Mike Fontenot: .272/.348/.435
(C) Geovany Soto: .257/.338/.456
(P) Carlos Zambrano: .220/.226/.367

Any time Derek Lowe takes the mound, there are going to be more than a few balls put in play. The Braves finished 22nd in UZR for 2009 and firgure to be about the same or slightly better in 2010. The Braves' infield defense will likely be a bit worse in 2010, with Troy Glaus replacing the league average defensive combo of Casey Kotchman and Adam LaRoche while Chipper Jones' defensive prowess continues to deteriorate with ever-advancing age. The outfield should be improved with Melky Cabrera and Jason Heyward replacing Garret Anderson, Ryan Church, and Jeff Francoeur. The outfield defense could be further improved by moving Melky to center and Mclouth to left, but that's a topic for another day.

Happy PECOTA Day & other Braves notes

Today was that magical day that only comes once a year - the day Baseball Prospectus unveils their PECOTA player projections. The staff at BP compile these projections into depth charts and attempt to predict Win-Loss totals based on those projections and estimated playing time.

From this process, I give you Baseball Prospectus' projected 2010 NL East Standings:

Phillies (88-74)
Braves (85-77)
Nationals (82-80)
Mets (77-85)
Marlins (76-86)

The Braves would be tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the NL Wild Card. That sure put the Braves' reluctance to get involved with Johnny Damon into perspective, doesn't it?

Elsewhere in the vast basebally analysis universe, Keith Law unveiled his Top 100 prospects, which included five Atlanta Braves:

#1 Jason Heyward (RF)
#45 Arodys Vizcaino (RHP)
#63 Julio Teheran (RHP)
#67 Freddie Freeman (1B)
#85 Randall Delgado (RHP)

Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings Review

When it comes to the Braves' farm system, everyone agrees that Jason Heyward is far and away the best prospect in the system (and maybe anyone else's system, for that matter), that there is a scarcity up-the-middle talent, and that there is a wealth of high-upside power arms.

Potential 2010 MLBers:
Jason Heyward (RF)
Craig Kimbrel (RP)

High-upside power arms:
Julio Teheran (RHP)
Arodys Vizcaino (RHP)
Randall Delgado (RHP)

Check out what some of my favorite publications have to say about the Braves' minor league talent:

Baseball Prospectus
Fan Graphs
Baseball America
Keith Law

And for an in-depth look at prospects from around the league, check out the Minor League Baseball Analyst.