Cubs shut out Braves in Atlanta's first loss

Last night's 2-0 shutout was a bitter defeat for the Braves in the style of many of the Braves' losses over the past couple of seasons: solid pitching backed by an offense that could get runners on base but couldn't drive them in. (The Braves stranded 12 baserunners on Thursday night).

Tyler Colvin's solo homerun in the top of the second put the Cubs ahead for good. In the fourth inning, Marlon Byrd's second homerun of the year plated the game's final run.

The loss was especially frustrating because - despite the homeruns - Tommy Hanson (5 1/3 IP, 7 K, 3 BB, 4 H) outpitched Randy Wells (6 IP, 1 K, 2 BB).

The Braves nearly won the game in the bottom of the ninth when Eric Hinske took a Carlos Marmol pitch to deep center with Nate McLouth and Yunel Escobar on base. The ball was well-struck but ultimately hauled in by Marlon Byrd for the second out of the ninth inning. Melky Cabrera unceremoniously struck out to end the game.

Lastly, you probably inferred this next bit of news from the fact that I mentioned that the Braves played a baseball game yesterday, but here goes: Chipper Jones injured his oblique and is expected to miss 2-3 days.

Braves Opening Day Preview: In the Field

If you had told me five months ago that Derek Lowe (RHP, Braves) was going to be the 2010 opening day starter for the Atlanta Braves, I would have enjoyed a hearty laugh at your expense. Javier Vazquez and Tommy Hanson were easily the Braves' best pitchers in 2009 while Derek Lowe fell well short of the expectations set by his $60 million contract and seemed a safe bet to be traded. My, how things have changed.

Since Javier Vazquez was traded to the Yankees, Derek Lowe has gone from clubhouse pariah to number one starter. The Braves' newfound confidence in Lowe was buoyed by a dominant spring (18K/2BB in 22 IP), and Lowe will need to build on that success to regain his 2008 form.

In 2009, Lowe struck out more than a batter fewer per nine innings (5.13) and walked more than one additional batter (2.91) than in his last year as a Dodger. His groundball rate also dipped from 60% to 56%. A strong debut against the Cubs would go a long way toward alleviating some of the buyer's remorse that Frank Wren and the Braves were feeling this offseason.

This is how the Cubs' opening day lineup has fared against RHPs:

(SS) Ryan Theriot: .283/.347/.351
(RF) Kosuke Fukudome: .262/.372/.417
(1B) Derrek Lee: .285/.364/.505
(3B) Aramis Ramirez: .284/.341/.493
(CF) Marlon Byrd: .282/.342/.416
(LF) Alfonso Soriano: .278/.320/.508
(2B) Mike Fontenot: .272/.348/.435
(C) Geovany Soto: .257/.338/.456
(P) Carlos Zambrano: .220/.226/.367

Any time Derek Lowe takes the mound, there are going to be more than a few balls put in play. The Braves finished 22nd in UZR for 2009 and firgure to be about the same or slightly better in 2010. The Braves' infield defense will likely be a bit worse in 2010, with Troy Glaus replacing the league average defensive combo of Casey Kotchman and Adam LaRoche while Chipper Jones' defensive prowess continues to deteriorate with ever-advancing age. The outfield should be improved with Melky Cabrera and Jason Heyward replacing Garret Anderson, Ryan Church, and Jeff Francoeur. The outfield defense could be further improved by moving Melky to center and Mclouth to left, but that's a topic for another day.

Melky Cabrera Revisited (plus closure on the never-ending Johnny Damon saga)

As Bob Dylan's Highway 61 Revisited is widely considered to be among the most influential Rock & Roll albums of all time, so shall this post be revered as one of the most influential Melky Cabrera blog entries of all time.

OK, maybe that's overstating it. But I do have an interesting nugget of information to consider along with my well-documented skepticism regarding Mr. Cabrera's chances of making a positive contribution to Atlanta's 2010 playoff push.

Melky Cabrera is a very interesting case, as he has gone from being extremely overrated in New York to being greatly underappreciated as an Atlanta Brave, with much thanks for that owed to the fan base's anger over trading Javier Vazquez. For what it's worth, the CHONE projection system appears to love Melky in 2010. In 562 PA, they have him hitting .296/.367/.441. After considering Melky's defensive contributions, his projected 2010 value based on the CHONE projection is 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR). In case you're keeping score at home, that's 0.2 WAR better than Johnny Damon's 2010 CHONE projection. (For a fantastic primer on WAR, check this out.)

Now, as far as outliers go, CHONE's weighted on base average (wOBA) projection of .358 for Cabrera is a pretty big one. (For a fantastic primer on wOBA, check this out.) The second-most generous Cabrera projection (Bill James) approximates a wOBA of .330. That impressive wOBA seems to be inflated by a .318 BABIP that deviates sharply from his BABIP of .288, .271, and .295 in the past three seasons. But it's not entirely reliant on fluke singles. Bill James projects an ISO of just .128 against CHONE's .145, including 8 more doubles in 50 fewer plate appearances. In 2009, Cabrera registered an ISO of .142 - so CHONE's power projection seems pretty reasonable, especially since Melky is still in the growth phase of his career.

If we adjust Cabrera's BABIP to .300, his triple slash projection drops to .281/.325/.426, resulting in a wOBA decrease of .012, which causes us to adjust his WAR value to 2.7, or 0.5 WAR less than Johnny Damon's projection.

If this estimation of Cabrera's value is in line with the front office's expectations, much of Frank Wren's recent behavior makes sense. No wonder he was lowballing Johnny Damon - he only stood to gain half a win, which can be had for about $1.75 million in this free agent market.

I say all of this to make the following point: even though we lost out on Johnny Damon, he's not so great that his value can't be replaced by a Melky Cabrera who slightly outperforms expectations.

Braves make Damon an offer he might refuse

With rumors that the Braves have offered Johnny Damon a one-year contract hitting the twitterverse on Wednesday afternoon, I thought this might be a good opportunity to look at what Mr. Damon might be worth to the Braves in 2010.

CHONE projects Damon as being worth 3.2 WAR in 2010. Let's suppose the Braves' current left fielder (an amalgamation of Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, Eric Hinske, and various other fourth outfielders) would be worth 1 WAR in 2010. Signing Damon, then, would provide add 2.2 marginal wins. That would make him worth $7.7 million to the Braves in 2010.

Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is reporting that the Braves' initial offer is for one year at about $5 million, a portion of which would be deferred. If Damon ended up signing for this amount, that would provide the Braves with $2.7 million of consumer surplus. Damon may be even more valuable if those two extra wins are enough to put the Braves in the playoffs. Most forecasts currently have the Braves in the playoff hunt, but not quite in the playoffs.

The Braves' newfound interest in Damon might come as a surprise to those who heeded overmuch Frank Wren's declaration that the Braves weren't planning on making any more player acquisitions this off season. Though the comment angered many Braves fans at the time, in retrospect, it may have been a shrewd move. Wren is, after all, having to wrangle with Scott Boras to try to make Johnny Damon a Brave. Why tip your hand that you're still looking for another outfielder? Boras has already shown that he can produce teams that are interested in his clients out of whole cloth. There would have been little point in allowing Boras to use such a comment to ramp up the perception of demand for Mr. Damon's services.

Player Profile: Melky Cabrera

If you liked Casey Kotchman, then you’ll love Melky Cabrera.

Other than the fact that Melky is a league average defensive outfielder whereas Casey is a good defensive first baseman, the two players have very similar skill sets.  The batting approach of Cabrera, like Kotchman, consists of taking a decent number of walks (8% BB rate in ‘09), making contact at an excellent rate (88% contact rate in ‘09), and hitting an extremely high number of ground balls (50% GB rate in ’09).

It’s hard to generate much power when 50% of the balls you put in play are driven into the ground.  This deficiency has dimmed the futures of prospects ranging from Delmon Young to Mark Teahen.

That said, Cabrera is just one skill away from turning into a productive major league batter.  Melky will be 25 going into the season, so he’s still in the growth stage of his career.  It’s not inconceivable that he could start lifting and driving some of these balls as he approaches his peak seasons.

If he doesn’t improve with the bat, he’s little more than a fourth outfielder who could be a nice defensive substitute for Nate McLouth in the late innings.

The Javier Vazquez trade - a week removed

The Braves get Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Dunn and $500,000.  The Yankees get Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan.

This trade dramatically reduces the Braves’ chances of making the playoffs in 2010 - by approxmiately 15%. That’s what makes this deal painful. What makes the deal somewhat more bearable is that there’s a decent chance that it improves the Braves’ payroll structure and overall talent in the long-term. To appropriately assess the merits and demerits of the trade, it will be necessary to consider the cost of making the trade against the potential benefit.

Let’s begin our analysis by considering a counterfactual hypothesis. Javier Vazquez is a member of the Atlanta Braves for the entire 2010 season. When his contract expires at the conclusion of the 2010 season, Frank Wren has to decide whether or not to offer him salary arbitration. For simplicity, let’s assume the Vazquez is offered and declines salary arbitration. Since Vazquez will likely be a Type A free agent, this would net the Braves two compensatory draft picks.

By going down this counterfactual path, we’re able to get a clear picture of the full cost of making this trade. The Braves gave up one year of Javier Vazquez plus two compensatory draft picks and team control of Boone Logan for three more years.
Research shows that these draft picks are worth about $8 million.

The lost value of Vazquez’ contribution is best measured in relation to the player(s) that will replace him. This would either be Kenshin Kawakami or Derek Lowe.

Kenshin Kawakami
[4.7 WAR (Vazquez’ 8-yr average) – 1.7 WAR (Kawakami’s 2009)] X $4.5 million (approximate value of marginal wins) = $13.5 million.

$13.5 million - $11.5 million (Javier Vazquez’ 2010 salary) = $2 million.


Derek Lowe
(4.7 WAR – 2.6 WAR) X $4.5 million = $9.45 million. $9.45 million - $11.5 million = -$2.05 million.

Bumping Lowe out of the rotation instead of trading Vazquez would have actually resulted in a net economic loss for the Braves, which may come as a surprise to the bloodthirsty masses that wanted to completely cut ties with Lowe at whatever cost necessary - but not to the discerning Screaming Indian reader.

We'll assume optimal decision-making on the part of Frank Wren (I know, I know), and say that the cost of losing Vazquez is $10 million because he would have bumped Kawakami, not Lowe out of the rotation.

Let’s estimate that Melky Cabrera will cost a total of $9 million during his three years remaining under team control. Dunn is very similar to Logan in skills, age, and service time, so there can’t be much expectation for profit there. For simplicity, we'll assume the following:

Boone Logan - Mike Dunn = 0

That gives us a final total of the cost of the Vazquez trade at $19 million.

Now, for the benefits.

The Braves got 6+ years of Arodys Vizcaino, 6+ years of Mike Dunn, 3 years of Melky Cabrera and $0.5 million.

Projecting Cabrera’s value in 2010 and beyond is difficult because of role uncertainty and limited (if NY-aggrandized) major league experience, but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll add much (if any) value to the line-up other than as a fourth outfielder and marginal contributor.

So whether this will be considered a good or bad trade may ultimately come down to whether Arodys Vizcaino reaches - or how nearly he reaches - his considerable ceiling.  Much of the burden of recovering this $18.5 million will be placed on his his ability to outperform his pay grade if/when he makes it to the big leagues.

The Braves could rid themselves of a potential albatross of Francoeurian proportions if they were able to flip Melky Cabrera. Talking Chop suggests that Frank Wren would be well-advised to act as quickly as possible while Cabrera still has that brilliant Yankee sheen. I agree. Otherwise, Cabrera may be a candidate to become non-tendered in the coming years, given how much his salary could grow in arbitration. If he’s traded or non-tendered, this trade goes from ‘outside shot long-term win’ to ‘probable long-term win’ for the Braves.


This article can also be found at the Braves Baseball Blog.