Jim Callis talks Teheran, Freeman, 2011 draft

Baseball America's Jim Callis answered some Braves-relates on his Twitter feed today:

Read Screaming Indian's analysis of Julio Teheran and Freddie Freeman here and here. Julio and Freddie were numbers one and two in our top prospects ranking.

Callis also broke down the order of the 2011 amateur draft. The Braves' first pick will be the 28th overall selection. Anyone who knows me at all also knows that I hope that by some miracle this young man is still on the board when the Braves make their first pick.

#2 Prospect: Freddie Freeman

By all accounts, Freddie Freeman will be the Braves' opening day first baseman. No Brave that still qualifies as a prospect (save perhaps Craig Kimbrel) is as ready to contribute to the major league roster as Freeman.

Many (including me) were puzzled by the decision to send Freeman to AAA to begin 2010 given his struggles in 169 plate appearances at AA in 2009 (.208/.308./.342), but Freeman surprised by putting up a robust triple slash line of .320/.378/.522 in 518 PA.

Freeman struggled mightily in limited big league at bats, going 4/24 with 8 strikeouts and no walks. He'll have to do better in 2011 if the Braves are going to avoid having first base be an offensive sink hole as it has so often in the post-McGriff era.

Freeman profiles as a John Olerud type minus the exceptional defensive play. Freddie doesn't walk a lot, but his high contact rate and gap power give him a chance to provide some offensive value. At his peak he should hit for a high average with about 20-25 HR and 30 doubles a year.

I'd say his upside in 2011 is something along the lines of Gaby Sanchez's 2010. Bill James projects an ambitious .282/.335/.446 line while Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster has him pegged for a more realistic .271/.322/.429 showing.

Freeman was ranked the #17 overall prospect by MLB.com and the #43 prospect by Keith Law.

>> Next (#3: Arodys Vizcaino)
<< Previous (#1 Julio Teheran)

Happy PECOTA Day & other Braves notes

Today was that magical day that only comes once a year - the day Baseball Prospectus unveils their PECOTA player projections. The staff at BP compile these projections into depth charts and attempt to predict Win-Loss totals based on those projections and estimated playing time.

From this process, I give you Baseball Prospectus' projected 2010 NL East Standings:

Phillies (88-74)
Braves (85-77)
Nationals (82-80)
Mets (77-85)
Marlins (76-86)

The Braves would be tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the NL Wild Card. That sure put the Braves' reluctance to get involved with Johnny Damon into perspective, doesn't it?

Elsewhere in the vast basebally analysis universe, Keith Law unveiled his Top 100 prospects, which included five Atlanta Braves:

#1 Jason Heyward (RF)
#45 Arodys Vizcaino (RHP)
#63 Julio Teheran (RHP)
#67 Freddie Freeman (1B)
#85 Randall Delgado (RHP)