#3 Prospect: Arodys Vizcaino

Arodys Vizcaino was the prize of last winter's Javier Vazquez trade. At the time of the trade I was unsure of how I felt about it*, but with the benefit of a hindsight that includes Vazquez' disastrous 2010 campaign with the Yankees and Vizcaino's strong showing for the single-A Rome Braves, Frank Wren is looking pretty smart for making this move.

Vizcaino brings a fastball that sits 92-94 and touches 95 (even 96, according to a Mark Bowman source), an effective but inconsistent 82 MPH curve, and a very raw 80 MPH change.

Vizcaino's 2010 season was very similar to that of Julio Teheran - except that Vizcaino is about a month and a half older and was doing it at a lower level. In 72 1/3 IP of A-ball, Vizcaino struck out 68 against 9 walks while giving up just 63 hits for a WHIP of less than one. Upon a promotion to High-A Myrtle Beach, Vizcaino continued to display solid command of the strike zone but got hit pretty hard (8 extra base hits) in a limited 13 2/3 inning run before succumbing to a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament and getting shut down for the season. Luckily, Vizcaino was able to avoid Tommy John surgery, but the risk of re-injury casts a shadow over his 2011 season.

For that reason I think hope the Braves will be very conservative with Arodys in 2011. I expect him to be placed with Myrtle Beach or maybe Double-A Mississippi, depending on how good he looks as a spring training NRI. But I'd put his chances of reaching the big leagues at "approaching 0%" simply because the Braves have pitching depth and there's no reason to rush him. Barring injury, I expect him to show up in the big leagues by mid-2012 or Opening Day 2013 (the first game the Braves will play with Derek Lowe's contract off of the books).

Check out this video of Vizcaino throwing last June:


*In the article that I link to, I mention that the trade looks a lot better for the Braves if Melky Cabrera ends up getting traded or non-tendered, which I only bring up because I find it amusing.

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Happy PECOTA Day & other Braves notes

Today was that magical day that only comes once a year - the day Baseball Prospectus unveils their PECOTA player projections. The staff at BP compile these projections into depth charts and attempt to predict Win-Loss totals based on those projections and estimated playing time.

From this process, I give you Baseball Prospectus' projected 2010 NL East Standings:

Phillies (88-74)
Braves (85-77)
Nationals (82-80)
Mets (77-85)
Marlins (76-86)

The Braves would be tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the NL Wild Card. That sure put the Braves' reluctance to get involved with Johnny Damon into perspective, doesn't it?

Elsewhere in the vast basebally analysis universe, Keith Law unveiled his Top 100 prospects, which included five Atlanta Braves:

#1 Jason Heyward (RF)
#45 Arodys Vizcaino (RHP)
#63 Julio Teheran (RHP)
#67 Freddie Freeman (1B)
#85 Randall Delgado (RHP)

Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings Review

When it comes to the Braves' farm system, everyone agrees that Jason Heyward is far and away the best prospect in the system (and maybe anyone else's system, for that matter), that there is a scarcity up-the-middle talent, and that there is a wealth of high-upside power arms.

Potential 2010 MLBers:
Jason Heyward (RF)
Craig Kimbrel (RP)

High-upside power arms:
Julio Teheran (RHP)
Arodys Vizcaino (RHP)
Randall Delgado (RHP)

Check out what some of my favorite publications have to say about the Braves' minor league talent:

Baseball Prospectus
Fan Graphs
Baseball America
Keith Law

And for an in-depth look at prospects from around the league, check out the Minor League Baseball Analyst.