Game 2 Preview

Wednesday's 7:10 ET game against the Chicago Cubs will feature another righty-on-righty matchup when Ryan Dempster (RHP, CHC) and Jair Jurrjens (RHP, ATL) take the hill for their respective teams.

I broke down the Braves' and the Cubs' historical performance against RHPs on Monday.

It will be interesting to see how Jurrjens holds up given his struggles with shoulder inflammation this spring. It seems like it would have made a lot of sense to slot Jair in at the fourth starter position to give his shoulder just a little bit more rest. But the Braves have been pretty agressive with the 24-year-old's workload, trotting him out for 188 innings in 2008 and 215 innings in 2009.

Jason Heyward fever drowns out Lowe's awfulness

On any other day, Derek Lowe's dreadful outing (6 IP, 3 BB, 2 K, 5 ER) would have had Braves fans everywhere in a miserable mood on Opening Day. But April 5, 2010 was not your average opening day. It was Jason Heyward Day.

Heyward's first inning three-run homerun off of Carlos Zambrano in his first MLB plate appearance is already the stuff of legend. The towering shot to right center traveled 433 feet, registering as "Plenty" on HitTracker's scale of Plenty, Just Enough, and Lucky. Watch the homerun here.

Heyward's blast was part of the Braves' 16-5 rout of the Chicago Cubs, led (along with Heyward's 4 RBI) by a 2-run single and a 3-run double by Yunel Escobar. Escobar and Heyward accounted for 5 of the 6 runs plated in the Braves' big first inning, in which they regained the lead for good after Derek Lowe gave up a three-run homer to Marlon Byrd in the top of the first.

The Braves are off on Tuesday but resume action at Turner Field on Wednesday when Jair Jurrjens will face off against Ryan Dempster.

Jair Jurrjens to undergo precautionary MRI this week

Word got out on Presidents' Day that Jair Jurrjens would undergo a precautionary MRI on his sore right shoulder. Though club officials are insisting that the procedure is merely prophylactic (team trainers are saying there appears to be no structural damage), there may be some reason for concern in the long term. The 24-year-old Jurrjens has already endured a heavy workload in his brief career, pitching 403 1/3 innings in his two major league seasons.

Additionally, it appears that the increased workload is having a deleterious effect on his base skills. Jurrjens' strikeout rate declined from 6.64 in 2008 to 6.36 in 2009, and his groundball rate dropped from 51.5% to 42.9%.

Still, Jurrjens came on strong in the second half of 2009, so maybe my concern is misplaced. Should Jair's shoulder falter, Kris Medlen will be at the ready to step in for some spot starts.

Jurrjens' 2009 Projections
The Bill James Baseball Handbook: 210 IP, 6.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster: 203 IP, 6.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA: 196 IP, 141 K, 66 BB, 3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
CHONE: 172 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Padres outlast Braves in extra innings

Mat Latos rebounded from a pair of rough outings with a brilliant one, giving the Padres seven innings of scoreless ball, including four strikeouts, no walks, and just two hits.

The only run his opponent, Jair Jurrjens, surrendered was a solo homerun to Adrian Gonzalez in the top of the third, but he probably deserved worse. Not including Gonzalez' round-tripper, Jurrjens allowed eight baserunners (4 hits, 4 walks), but all were left stranded. Jair left the game after 7 2/3 IP, down 1-0.

The Braves missed a golden opportunity to tie the game and/or take the lead in the eighth inning. The bases were loaded with one out, but Omar Infante lined out to Everth Cabrera, and Martin Prado struck out to end the threat.

It seemed like the book was written going into the bottom of the ninth. No one has done anything against Padres closer Heath Bell all season, so there was little reason to think tonight would be any different. But Adam LaRoche couldn't be bothered with the notion that he was expected to bend over and take it like Casey Kotchman. LaRoche drove in in pinch-runner Reid Gorecki on a single that was nearly caught by Will Venable.

But, ultimately, Atlanta's propensity for striking out with the bases loaded did them in. Garret Anderson joined the party by striking out with the bases loaded in the bottom of the tenth, and David Eckstein drove in the winning run on an RBI double in the top of the 12th.

Screaming Indian favorite, the normally reliable Kris Medlen, took the loss, allowing two walks and two hits (including that fateful Eckstein double) in one inning of work.

Jurrjens v Latos in Braves/Padres opener

With the Rockies' late night, extra innings miracle win against the Giants last night, the Braves are 4.5 games out of the wild card. According to Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds, Atlanta has a 32.4% chance of making the playoffs.

The Braves will resume work on closing that gap when the Padres come to town tonight and open up a three game series at 7 PM Eastern.

Jair Jurrjens takes the hill for the Braves, hoping to build upon a hot streak that began a month ago whe he outpitched Tim Lincecum. Since (and including) that game, he has struck out 25 and walked eight in 28 2/3 innings pitched.

Jurrjens' opponent, rookie Mat Latos, is heading in the opposite direction. In his past two starts (7 2/3 IP), Latos has allowed 12 ER on 15 H and 7 BB. The Padres have decided he will only make one more start beyond tonight in order to limit the 21-year-old RHP's workload.

Howard's homerun beats Braves

Joe Blanton (2 K, 1 BB, 7 H) and Jair Jurrjens (6 K, 1 BB, 5 H) dueled admirably, giving their respective teams seven innings apiece of two-run ball. Blanton's cause was aided by a brilliant defensive performance by the Phillies' not-so-secret weapon, Shane Victorino.

Things got hairy in the top of the eighth when Ben Francisco led off with a double against Mike Gonzalez. Luckily, the Phillies decided to waste an at bat from one of their best players when they allowed Jimmy Rollins to bunt Francisco over to third. Victorino and Utley popped out in succession to end the inning.

But the bullpen's high-wire act was short-lived. Ryan Howard gave the Phillies the game-winning run in the top of the ninth with a solo homerun off of RHP Rafael Soriano. Despite the lefty-leaning heart of the the Phillies order (Utley, Howard, Ibanez) likely coming up in the ninth, Cox opted use LHP Mike Gonzalez the inning prior to face righties Ben Francisco, Jimmy Rollins, and switch-hitter Shane Victorino.

The Braves were unable to mount a counterpunch in the eighth against Ryan Madson and got two runners on against Lidge in the ninth, but Nate McLouth flied out to deep left to end the game.

The Braves now have a serious uphill battle to win the series. Tomorrow will be the hardest part. The Kawakami/Hamels pitching matchup heavily favors the Phillies. The Braves now trail the Phillies by six games.

Atlanta & Philadelphia open critical intradivision series

It's difficult to overstate the importance of this weekend's series against the Phillies. By Monday, the Braves could be as few as two games back of the Phills in the NL East or as many as eight. Baseball Prospectus currently gives the Braves a 44% chance of making the playoffs. Taking two or three games from Philadelphia should dramatically improve those odds. The series gets started on Friday night in Atlanta, where Jair Jurrjens and Joe Blanton are set to take the mound.

Blanton came to the Phillies last season via trade from the Oakland Athletics. Since arriving in Philadelphia, Blanton has been a solid mid-rotation type who is, at times, prone to being done in by the longball. (But then again, are there any pitchers who pitch half of their games in Citizens Bank about whom this cannot be said?) On the year, Blanton has pitched 132 innings, tallying 111 K and 35 BB while giving up 1.5 HR/9. Blanton has been particularly effective of late: in his past 28 1/3 innings, he has a 2.51 ERA on the strength of 20 K and just 2 BB over that same period.

Jair Jurrjens will be asked to manage the difficult task of limiting the damage done by the Phillies' lineup, a solid group to be sure but one that feasts on right-handed pitching in paricular. Jurrjens' overall performance this season had been characterized by deterioration in each base skill: strikeouts, walks, and groundball percentage. But Jurrjens caught fire after the All-Star break to bring his strikeout and walk ratios in line with those from 2008 (The only perceptible difference is an eight percent drop on his groundball rate.) In his last 29 IP, Jurrjens has struck out 25 against 9 walks on his way to a 3.41 ERA during that period.

First pitch is scheduled for 7:30 ET.


Good news, Phillies fans: Kenshin Kawakami is set to take the mound on Saturday. Philadelphia has yet to name a probable starter. Sunday's matchup will be much better for Atlanta, as staff ace Javier Vazquez will take on overrated rookie J.A. Happ.

A version of this article also appeared on the Braves Baseball Blog

Jurrjens and Billingsley in battle of precocious RHPs

The Atlanta Braves take on the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight in a game that will feature two talented young right-handed pitchers: Jair Jurrjens for the Braves and Chad Billingsley for the Dodgers.

Billingsley profiles as a strikeout pitcher, averaging 8.5 K/9 IP this season and 9.0K/9 IP in 2008. But control of the strike zone has eluded him of late, walking 11 batters in his last 26 1/3 innings. Much like Jurrjens, Billingsley is following up a stellar season in 2008 with something of a step back in 2009 from a skills perspective (-.5 K/9, +.4 BB/9, -5 GB% this year relative to last).

But it's been Jurrjens who has picked things up of late, with lights-out performances in his last two starts (13 2/3 IP, 14 K, 2 BB, 3 ER). Jair will need to be in top form on Sunday night if the Braves are to shut down the Dodgers' formidable bats. Los Angeles leads the National Leage in On Base Percentage vs. Right Handed Pitchers, with a line of .271/.344/.403. It's worth noting that those numbers include 50 games in which Manny Ramirez did not play.

Braves lose to Marlins on 2-run walk-off HR by Ross Gload

The Braves took the early lead in the third inning on a Martin Prado single that plated Ryan Church, but the Marlins answered right back with a 2-run double by Hanley Ramirez in the bottom of the frame, accounting for the only two runs that Jair Jurrjens allowed in his six innings of work.

The Braves were threatening again in their next turn at bat when Garret Anderson and Yunel Escobar reached base with none out, but Ricky Nolasco got out of trouble by getting Ryan Church to ground into an inning-ending double play.

In the top of the sixth, the game was knotted up 2-2 after a Chipper Jones solo shot, his fourth in as many games against Nolasco.

Garret Anderson hit a home run off of Marlins closer Leo Nunez in the top of the ninth to give the Braves what appeared to be the game-winning run. But Rafael Soriano gave up a two-run homer to Ross Gload in the top of the ninth to blow the save and lose the game.

Jair Jurrjens - for his part - pitched very well, striking out five, walking only one batter, and giving up five hits. Over his last 13 1/3 innings, Jurrjens has 15 K, 2 BB, 10 H, 3 ER. Perhaps, after a first half in which his skills deteriorated compared to last year, Jurrjens is beginning to turn things around on the stretch run to the playoffs.


The Rockies also lost on Tuesday by a score of 4-0 to the New York Mets. The Marlins will move ahead of the Braves by a game in the Wild Card race, but the Braves keep pace with the Rockies and remain 3 games back.

A Tale of Two Pitchers: Nolasco / Jurrjens matchup kicks off important intradivision series

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Nolasco's was the highest of ERAs, Jurrjens' was the lowest of ERAs. OK, you get the picture.

The Braves and Marlins head into action today tied at three games back of the National League wild card spot. In Ricky Nolasco and Jair Jurrjens the Marlins and Braves, respectively, send two young pitchers to the mound whose differences don't stop at their widely divergent ERAs.

Jurrjens' sparkling 2.67 ERA belies a deteriorating skill set (128 IP, 88 K, 47 BB, 43% groundball rate) likely brought on by his heavy workload during the 2008 season - a season in which, it's worth noting, the Braves were not in contention for a playoff spot late in the season at which time a more cautious approach might have called for Jurrjens to be shut down.

Nolasco, on the other hand, has been haunted all season long by a 5.42 ERA despite displaying skills that promise much better future results (103 IP, 105 K, 26 BB, 39% GB rate).

So give the advantage in staring pitching goes to the Marlins tonight, but what about the bats? The Braves are hitting .261/.334/.408 against righties on the season, while the Marlins are a little worse at .260/.331/.397.

If the Braves can work deep into pitch counts and send Nolasco home early, they might fare better against the Marlins' bullpen who have had to work a little more often than the Braves' bullpen has this year. In 312 IP, Marlins relievers have struck out 294, walked 161, and given up 23 HR while boasting a 3.79 ERA. The Braves' bullpen has given up earned runs at a slightly higher clip (3.80), but have the better K/BB ratio (2.01 to Florida's 1.83), including 271 K, 135 BB, and 17 HR in 295 1/3 IP.