If you had told me five months ago that Derek Lowe (RHP, Braves) was going to be the 2010 opening day starter for the Atlanta Braves, I would have enjoyed a hearty laugh at your expense. Javier Vazquez and Tommy Hanson were easily the Braves' best pitchers in 2009 while Derek Lowe fell well short of the expectations set by his $60 million contract and seemed a safe bet to be traded. My, how things have changed.
Since Javier Vazquez was traded to the Yankees, Derek Lowe has gone from clubhouse pariah to number one starter. The Braves' newfound confidence in Lowe was buoyed by a dominant spring (18K/2BB in 22 IP), and Lowe will need to build on that success to regain his 2008 form.
In 2009, Lowe struck out more than a batter fewer per nine innings (5.13) and walked more than one additional batter (2.91) than in his last year as a Dodger. His groundball rate also dipped from 60% to 56%. A strong debut against the Cubs would go a long way toward alleviating some of the buyer's remorse that Frank Wren and the Braves were feeling this offseason.
This is how the Cubs' opening day lineup has fared against RHPs:
(SS) Ryan Theriot: .283/.347/.351
(RF) Kosuke Fukudome: .262/.372/.417
(1B) Derrek Lee: .285/.364/.505
(3B) Aramis Ramirez: .284/.341/.493
(CF) Marlon Byrd: .282/.342/.416
(LF) Alfonso Soriano: .278/.320/.508
(2B) Mike Fontenot: .272/.348/.435
(C) Geovany Soto: .257/.338/.456
(P) Carlos Zambrano: .220/.226/.367
Any time Derek Lowe takes the mound, there are going to be more than a few balls put in play. The Braves finished 22nd in UZR for 2009 and firgure to be about the same or slightly better in 2010. The Braves' infield defense will likely be a bit worse in 2010, with Troy Glaus replacing the league average defensive combo of Casey Kotchman and Adam LaRoche while Chipper Jones' defensive prowess continues to deteriorate with ever-advancing age. The outfield should be improved with Melky Cabrera and Jason Heyward replacing Garret Anderson, Ryan Church, and Jeff Francoeur. The outfield defense could be further improved by moving Melky to center and Mclouth to left, but that's a topic for another day.
Showing posts with label Casey Kotchman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Casey Kotchman. Show all posts
Monday, April 5, 2010
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Troubleshooting the infield corners
Most of the Braves' struggles on offense in 2009 stemmed from their inability to obtain offensive production from the positions on the field where you typically expect the most production: the infield and outfield corners.
In right field, Jeff Francoeur was, well, Jeff Francoeur. Ryan Church didn't provide the relief from Frenchy's awfulness for which the Braves had hoped. Matt Diaz provided some late-season spark, but thinking of him as anything more than the short end of a platoon would be a mistake on par with, say, signing Garret Anderson to be your every day left fielder.
Oops.
The failures of the corner infield positions were a little more unexpected. Not even those dimmest on Casey Kotchman's prospects expected him to be as bad as he was during his brief tenure with the Braves. But the Atlanta finally found their guy at first base in Adam LaRoche only to see him become a free agent at the season's close. While it would be nice to be able to re-sign LaRoche, doing so will be costly and will likely keep Adam in Atlanta a good bit beyond Freddie Freeman's ETA in the big leagues.
On the other side of the diamond, Chipper Jones' inability to remain healthy presents problems of its own. Enduring Chipper's frailty in order to enjoy his effective-when-healthy schtick is now a deeply ingrained part of Braves tradition. But the novelty has begun to wear thin, especially when he's not delivering a 1.000+ OPS as he did in 2008 and 2007 and Martin Prado is the guy filling in for him a couple times a week. Don't get me wrong, Prado is a serviceable second baseman with room yet to improve, but his bat doesn't play at third base.
There's a potential solution here that might allow Frank Wren to solve two problems at once: move Chipper to first base. Jones wouldn't be the first player to move across the diamond to keep his body healthy and his bat in play. Third base is one of the most physically demanding positions on the field, and moving him to first might prove to be less strain on his body. Furthermore, Chipper's defense at third these days is either average or awful, depending on which metric you use.
As I've mentioned, this solution could potentially solve two problems: 1) the void at first base 2) Chipper Jones' health.
It does, however, create another problem: the void at third base. Fortunately, I have an answer which, I think, solves that problem quite well: sign Adrian Beltre.
But more on that tomorrow.
This article also appears at the Braves Baseball Blog.
In right field, Jeff Francoeur was, well, Jeff Francoeur. Ryan Church didn't provide the relief from Frenchy's awfulness for which the Braves had hoped. Matt Diaz provided some late-season spark, but thinking of him as anything more than the short end of a platoon would be a mistake on par with, say, signing Garret Anderson to be your every day left fielder.
Oops.
The failures of the corner infield positions were a little more unexpected. Not even those dimmest on Casey Kotchman's prospects expected him to be as bad as he was during his brief tenure with the Braves. But the Atlanta finally found their guy at first base in Adam LaRoche only to see him become a free agent at the season's close. While it would be nice to be able to re-sign LaRoche, doing so will be costly and will likely keep Adam in Atlanta a good bit beyond Freddie Freeman's ETA in the big leagues.
On the other side of the diamond, Chipper Jones' inability to remain healthy presents problems of its own. Enduring Chipper's frailty in order to enjoy his effective-when-healthy schtick is now a deeply ingrained part of Braves tradition. But the novelty has begun to wear thin, especially when he's not delivering a 1.000+ OPS as he did in 2008 and 2007 and Martin Prado is the guy filling in for him a couple times a week. Don't get me wrong, Prado is a serviceable second baseman with room yet to improve, but his bat doesn't play at third base.
There's a potential solution here that might allow Frank Wren to solve two problems at once: move Chipper to first base. Jones wouldn't be the first player to move across the diamond to keep his body healthy and his bat in play. Third base is one of the most physically demanding positions on the field, and moving him to first might prove to be less strain on his body. Furthermore, Chipper's defense at third these days is either average or awful, depending on which metric you use.
As I've mentioned, this solution could potentially solve two problems: 1) the void at first base 2) Chipper Jones' health.
It does, however, create another problem: the void at third base. Fortunately, I have an answer which, I think, solves that problem quite well: sign Adrian Beltre.
But more on that tomorrow.
This article also appears at the Braves Baseball Blog.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Adam LaRoche returns to Atlanta - but does he make the Braves any better?
In case you missed it, Casey Kotchman was traded to the Boston Red Sox on Friday for Adam LaRoche. So did the Braves improve their playoffs odds with this move, or are they just rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking ship?
Baseball Prospectus' remainder-of-season projections have LaRoche being an upgrade of 1.8 runs over Casey Kotchman with the bat. Fielding Runs Above Replacement has their year-to-date defensive performances being pretty similar.
The biggest difference between LaRoche and Kotchman? For the balance of the season, Kotchman is due about $1.07 million against LaRoche's $2.6 million. So the Braves are paying roughly $850,000 for just under two additional runs. The Red Sox are supposed to have included cash considerations, but those details have not been made available.
Also, LaRoche will be a free agent at the end of the season. According to an approximation of the Elias Sports Bureau rankings, LaRoche will fall just short of being a Type B free agent, meaning that the Braves will receive no draft pick compensation if LaRoche declines arbitration. Kotchman, on the other hand would have been cheap and under team control through 2012.
Though I've made no secret of my belief that Casey Kotchman is a severely inadequate first baseman, he still has his peak years ahead of him, and he's not so bad if you're thinking of him as nothing more than an affordable stop-gap to get you to the Freddie Freeman era.
Monday, July 27, 2009
As Ugly As I Seem: the anniversary of the Mark Teixeira trade
We're coming up on the anniversary of the Mark Teixeira trade. Does it seem as god-awful now as it did at the time? Briefly, yes. It's still awful.
To refresh: the Braves dealt Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.
Kotchman has been putrid with the bat to the tune of a 0.8 wins above replacement since the trade (in other words, Kotchman's contribution has been worth less than one run better than what a random, non-prospect dude from AAA would have produced). Marek has been just as awful. In 34 innings between AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, Marek has given up 23 earned runs, 27 strikeouts, and 30 walks.
Alternate universe scenario: Braves offer Teixeira arbitration. Teixeira declines. Teixeira signs with Yankees. Braves receive two sandwich picks.
Yeah, I like that version better.
Alternate universe scenario two: Braves offer Teixeira arbitration. Teixeira declines. Braves sign Teixeira.
Now, suppose the Braves spend the same $20 million on Mark Texeira as the Yankees did (this is problematic, but bear with me until the end of the paragraph). The Braves are immediately 5.46 wins better than they are in the depressing reality where they instead have Casey Kotchman under contract. These extra wins have monetary value, especially if they prove to be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. If you place the value of each marginal win at $4.5 million, Mark Teixeira's production net of Casey Kotchman is worth $24.57 million. The Braves could have outbid the Yankees by $4.57 million and the result would have been a wash!
Now, I should point out that Teixeira's contract is heavily backloaded, and it is highly unlikely that he'll be worth the $22.5 million he'll be paid as a 36-year-old, but the Yankees to be sure are due some surplus on the front end.
In any case, my point is this: trading for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek was the worst of all possible decisions. Casey Kotchman is a first baseman who has no power, no longer gets on base, and isn't especially good with the glove. As for Stephen Marek, I'd be shocked if he ever set foot on a major league baseball diamond, and the fact that he was given the title of "prospect" when news articles covering the trade were written was, quite frankly, laughable.
To refresh: the Braves dealt Mark Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.
Kotchman has been putrid with the bat to the tune of a 0.8 wins above replacement since the trade (in other words, Kotchman's contribution has been worth less than one run better than what a random, non-prospect dude from AAA would have produced). Marek has been just as awful. In 34 innings between AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, Marek has given up 23 earned runs, 27 strikeouts, and 30 walks.
Alternate universe scenario: Braves offer Teixeira arbitration. Teixeira declines. Teixeira signs with Yankees. Braves receive two sandwich picks.
Yeah, I like that version better.
Alternate universe scenario two: Braves offer Teixeira arbitration. Teixeira declines. Braves sign Teixeira.
Now, suppose the Braves spend the same $20 million on Mark Texeira as the Yankees did (this is problematic, but bear with me until the end of the paragraph). The Braves are immediately 5.46 wins better than they are in the depressing reality where they instead have Casey Kotchman under contract. These extra wins have monetary value, especially if they prove to be the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs. If you place the value of each marginal win at $4.5 million, Mark Teixeira's production net of Casey Kotchman is worth $24.57 million. The Braves could have outbid the Yankees by $4.57 million and the result would have been a wash!
Now, I should point out that Teixeira's contract is heavily backloaded, and it is highly unlikely that he'll be worth the $22.5 million he'll be paid as a 36-year-old, but the Yankees to be sure are due some surplus on the front end.
In any case, my point is this: trading for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek was the worst of all possible decisions. Casey Kotchman is a first baseman who has no power, no longer gets on base, and isn't especially good with the glove. As for Stephen Marek, I'd be shocked if he ever set foot on a major league baseball diamond, and the fact that he was given the title of "prospect" when news articles covering the trade were written was, quite frankly, laughable.
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