If you had told me five months ago that Derek Lowe (RHP, Braves) was going to be the 2010 opening day starter for the Atlanta Braves, I would have enjoyed a hearty laugh at your expense. Javier Vazquez and Tommy Hanson were easily the Braves' best pitchers in 2009 while Derek Lowe fell well short of the expectations set by his $60 million contract and seemed a safe bet to be traded. My, how things have changed.
Since Javier Vazquez was traded to the Yankees, Derek Lowe has gone from clubhouse pariah to number one starter. The Braves' newfound confidence in Lowe was buoyed by a dominant spring (18K/2BB in 22 IP), and Lowe will need to build on that success to regain his 2008 form.
In 2009, Lowe struck out more than a batter fewer per nine innings (5.13) and walked more than one additional batter (2.91) than in his last year as a Dodger. His groundball rate also dipped from 60% to 56%. A strong debut against the Cubs would go a long way toward alleviating some of the buyer's remorse that Frank Wren and the Braves were feeling this offseason.
This is how the Cubs' opening day lineup has fared against RHPs:
(SS) Ryan Theriot: .283/.347/.351
(RF) Kosuke Fukudome: .262/.372/.417
(1B) Derrek Lee: .285/.364/.505
(3B) Aramis Ramirez: .284/.341/.493
(CF) Marlon Byrd: .282/.342/.416
(LF) Alfonso Soriano: .278/.320/.508
(2B) Mike Fontenot: .272/.348/.435
(C) Geovany Soto: .257/.338/.456
(P) Carlos Zambrano: .220/.226/.367
Any time Derek Lowe takes the mound, there are going to be more than a few balls put in play. The Braves finished 22nd in UZR for 2009 and firgure to be about the same or slightly better in 2010. The Braves' infield defense will likely be a bit worse in 2010, with Troy Glaus replacing the league average defensive combo of Casey Kotchman and Adam LaRoche while Chipper Jones' defensive prowess continues to deteriorate with ever-advancing age. The outfield should be improved with Melky Cabrera and Jason Heyward replacing Garret Anderson, Ryan Church, and Jeff Francoeur. The outfield defense could be further improved by moving Melky to center and Mclouth to left, but that's a topic for another day.
Showing posts with label Adam LaRoche. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Adam LaRoche. Show all posts
Monday, April 5, 2010
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Braves sign Billy Wagner to $7 million deal
In a vacuum, I don't hate this signing. As J.C. Bradbury points out, Wagner would likely yield more in revenue than it cost to sign him.
But it's the opportunity cost here that worries me, especially given the fact that the Braves rather curiously delcined to offer arbitration to Adam LaRoche. (What was the downside here? That he would accept the arbitration offer, and you would get the best first baseman on the market at relatively little expense?)
The Braves have a dire need at first base this offseason, they won't have much payroll coming off the books, and they've already blown $7 million on a 38-year-old reliever who is just getting back from Tommy John surgery.
We broke down the market for free agent first basemen back in October.
Catch the details of the Wagner signing here.
But it's the opportunity cost here that worries me, especially given the fact that the Braves rather curiously delcined to offer arbitration to Adam LaRoche. (What was the downside here? That he would accept the arbitration offer, and you would get the best first baseman on the market at relatively little expense?)
The Braves have a dire need at first base this offseason, they won't have much payroll coming off the books, and they've already blown $7 million on a 38-year-old reliever who is just getting back from Tommy John surgery.
We broke down the market for free agent first basemen back in October.
Catch the details of the Wagner signing here.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Possible free agent First Base targets
The following are some first basemen the Braves might look to target in the upcoming free agency period. No players with WARPs under 0.5 were considered because, hey, even the Braves have standards.
Player (2009 WARP)
Adam LaRoche (3.9)
Russell Branyan (2.9)
Nick Johnson (2.9)
Fernando Tatis (2.1)
Eric Hinske (1.1)
Carlos Delgado (0.8)
Dmitri Young (0.5)
Based on last season's Wins Above Replacement Player, Adam LaRoche will be the best first baseman hitting the free agent market this offseason. As such, it would make a great deal of sense for the Braves to offer LaRoche salary arbitration. Should he decline the offer, don't be surprised to see Atlanta pursue him as a free agent. It would be difficult to imaginge that Frank Wren would let first base go virtually unattended for a second consecutive season. Should the price tag for LaRoche be too high, there will be some other interesting options available to the Braves.
No one questions Nick Johnson's talent, but he's been a disabled list mainstay for the better part of the decade.
Russell Branyan has finally begun to thrive after being given a shot at regular playing time the past two seasons.
Carlos Delgado was well on the way to following up on a resurgent 2008 campaign when hip surgery put him on the shelf for all but 100 PAs in 2009. He might be an interesting candidate for the vacancy if the Braves can sign him cheaply.
Lastly, there's always the option of moving Chipper Jones over to first base. Doing so would relieve the Braves' pitching staff of Chipper's increasingly miserable defense, help Chipper stay healthy, and fill the Braves' vacancy at first base with a player already on the payroll.
This article can also be viewed at the Braves Baseball Blog.
Player (2009 WARP)
Adam LaRoche (3.9)
Russell Branyan (2.9)
Nick Johnson (2.9)
Fernando Tatis (2.1)
Eric Hinske (1.1)
Carlos Delgado (0.8)
Dmitri Young (0.5)
Based on last season's Wins Above Replacement Player, Adam LaRoche will be the best first baseman hitting the free agent market this offseason. As such, it would make a great deal of sense for the Braves to offer LaRoche salary arbitration. Should he decline the offer, don't be surprised to see Atlanta pursue him as a free agent. It would be difficult to imaginge that Frank Wren would let first base go virtually unattended for a second consecutive season. Should the price tag for LaRoche be too high, there will be some other interesting options available to the Braves.
No one questions Nick Johnson's talent, but he's been a disabled list mainstay for the better part of the decade.
Russell Branyan has finally begun to thrive after being given a shot at regular playing time the past two seasons.
Carlos Delgado was well on the way to following up on a resurgent 2008 campaign when hip surgery put him on the shelf for all but 100 PAs in 2009. He might be an interesting candidate for the vacancy if the Braves can sign him cheaply.
Lastly, there's always the option of moving Chipper Jones over to first base. Doing so would relieve the Braves' pitching staff of Chipper's increasingly miserable defense, help Chipper stay healthy, and fill the Braves' vacancy at first base with a player already on the payroll.
This article can also be viewed at the Braves Baseball Blog.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Troubleshooting the infield corners
Most of the Braves' struggles on offense in 2009 stemmed from their inability to obtain offensive production from the positions on the field where you typically expect the most production: the infield and outfield corners.
In right field, Jeff Francoeur was, well, Jeff Francoeur. Ryan Church didn't provide the relief from Frenchy's awfulness for which the Braves had hoped. Matt Diaz provided some late-season spark, but thinking of him as anything more than the short end of a platoon would be a mistake on par with, say, signing Garret Anderson to be your every day left fielder.
Oops.
The failures of the corner infield positions were a little more unexpected. Not even those dimmest on Casey Kotchman's prospects expected him to be as bad as he was during his brief tenure with the Braves. But the Atlanta finally found their guy at first base in Adam LaRoche only to see him become a free agent at the season's close. While it would be nice to be able to re-sign LaRoche, doing so will be costly and will likely keep Adam in Atlanta a good bit beyond Freddie Freeman's ETA in the big leagues.
On the other side of the diamond, Chipper Jones' inability to remain healthy presents problems of its own. Enduring Chipper's frailty in order to enjoy his effective-when-healthy schtick is now a deeply ingrained part of Braves tradition. But the novelty has begun to wear thin, especially when he's not delivering a 1.000+ OPS as he did in 2008 and 2007 and Martin Prado is the guy filling in for him a couple times a week. Don't get me wrong, Prado is a serviceable second baseman with room yet to improve, but his bat doesn't play at third base.
There's a potential solution here that might allow Frank Wren to solve two problems at once: move Chipper to first base. Jones wouldn't be the first player to move across the diamond to keep his body healthy and his bat in play. Third base is one of the most physically demanding positions on the field, and moving him to first might prove to be less strain on his body. Furthermore, Chipper's defense at third these days is either average or awful, depending on which metric you use.
As I've mentioned, this solution could potentially solve two problems: 1) the void at first base 2) Chipper Jones' health.
It does, however, create another problem: the void at third base. Fortunately, I have an answer which, I think, solves that problem quite well: sign Adrian Beltre.
But more on that tomorrow.
This article also appears at the Braves Baseball Blog.
In right field, Jeff Francoeur was, well, Jeff Francoeur. Ryan Church didn't provide the relief from Frenchy's awfulness for which the Braves had hoped. Matt Diaz provided some late-season spark, but thinking of him as anything more than the short end of a platoon would be a mistake on par with, say, signing Garret Anderson to be your every day left fielder.
Oops.
The failures of the corner infield positions were a little more unexpected. Not even those dimmest on Casey Kotchman's prospects expected him to be as bad as he was during his brief tenure with the Braves. But the Atlanta finally found their guy at first base in Adam LaRoche only to see him become a free agent at the season's close. While it would be nice to be able to re-sign LaRoche, doing so will be costly and will likely keep Adam in Atlanta a good bit beyond Freddie Freeman's ETA in the big leagues.
On the other side of the diamond, Chipper Jones' inability to remain healthy presents problems of its own. Enduring Chipper's frailty in order to enjoy his effective-when-healthy schtick is now a deeply ingrained part of Braves tradition. But the novelty has begun to wear thin, especially when he's not delivering a 1.000+ OPS as he did in 2008 and 2007 and Martin Prado is the guy filling in for him a couple times a week. Don't get me wrong, Prado is a serviceable second baseman with room yet to improve, but his bat doesn't play at third base.
There's a potential solution here that might allow Frank Wren to solve two problems at once: move Chipper to first base. Jones wouldn't be the first player to move across the diamond to keep his body healthy and his bat in play. Third base is one of the most physically demanding positions on the field, and moving him to first might prove to be less strain on his body. Furthermore, Chipper's defense at third these days is either average or awful, depending on which metric you use.
As I've mentioned, this solution could potentially solve two problems: 1) the void at first base 2) Chipper Jones' health.
It does, however, create another problem: the void at third base. Fortunately, I have an answer which, I think, solves that problem quite well: sign Adrian Beltre.
But more on that tomorrow.
This article also appears at the Braves Baseball Blog.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Braves Becoming Free Agents
Tim Hudson ($12 million club option) - All indications seem to be that the Braves will pick up Hudson's option. And with the way he pitched so well so soon after Tommy John surgery, why not?
Adam LaRoche - This will be a tough call for Frank Wren. LaRoche is decent enough, and is certainly an improvement over the sad sack we were employing before he returned. However, I'm expecting LaRoche will want a long-term contract. As such, it might not make a whole lot of sense to pay to bring him back. For what it's worth, LaRoche is projected to be a Type B free agent.
Rafael Soriano - Right-handed relievers are a dime a dozen. He's going to be a Type A free agent. Let him walk. Take the compensatory picks.
Mike Gonzalez - Left-handed relievers that can also retire right-handed batters are a slightly rarer bird. I'd bring him back. His lack of a "closer" tag should make him slightly cheaper than Soriano. Should the Braves decide to let him go, Gonzalez would also be a Type A free agent.
Garret Anderson - If Wren re-signs Anderson and his .723 OPS, I might become a Mets fan.
I'm sorry. I didn't mean that.
Greg Norton - Meh. Why bother?
This article can also be viewed at the Braves Baseball Blog.
Adam LaRoche - This will be a tough call for Frank Wren. LaRoche is decent enough, and is certainly an improvement over the sad sack we were employing before he returned. However, I'm expecting LaRoche will want a long-term contract. As such, it might not make a whole lot of sense to pay to bring him back. For what it's worth, LaRoche is projected to be a Type B free agent.
Rafael Soriano - Right-handed relievers are a dime a dozen. He's going to be a Type A free agent. Let him walk. Take the compensatory picks.
Mike Gonzalez - Left-handed relievers that can also retire right-handed batters are a slightly rarer bird. I'd bring him back. His lack of a "closer" tag should make him slightly cheaper than Soriano. Should the Braves decide to let him go, Gonzalez would also be a Type A free agent.
Garret Anderson - If Wren re-signs Anderson and his .723 OPS, I might become a Mets fan.
I'm sorry. I didn't mean that.
Greg Norton - Meh. Why bother?
This article can also be viewed at the Braves Baseball Blog.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
LaRoche powers Braves to 6-2 victory over Nationals
For the second night in a row, the Nationals got on the scoreboard against Atlanta in the top of the first, but - for the second night a row - the Braves came storming back.
Derek Lowe gave up three hits and a walk in the first inning, but managed to limit the damage to one run when Nyjer Morgan was caught stealing and Josh Willingham grounded into an inning-ending double play.
Atlanta got things going in the bottom of the second when Garret Anderson and Adam LaRoche hit a pair of solo shots to take the lead away from Washington. The Nationals tied it back up in the top of the seventh inning when a Ronnie Belliard single drove in Elijah Dukes.
The seventh was the last inning that Lowe would work. He continued to struggle with his control of the strike zone, walking four batters in seven innings pitched. Still, Lowe had the ground ball machine in full effect, generating 11 of outs via the grounder.
In the bottom of the seventh, Adam LaRoche quickly helped the Braves retake the lead on the strength of his second solo homerun of the game. Atlanta pulled away in the bottom of the eight with a three-run inning that got kick-started by a Martin Prado solo shot. LaRoche and Greg Norton walked in the Braves' final two runs later that inning.
Notes:
LaRoche continues to be scorching hot, with 13 hits in 35 at bats, including three homeruns, since he was acquired from Boston.
The Rockies and Phillies both won tonight (the latter in Pedro Martinez' triumphant debut), so the Braves don't gain any ground in the wild card or the NL East with tonight's win.
Derek Lowe gave up three hits and a walk in the first inning, but managed to limit the damage to one run when Nyjer Morgan was caught stealing and Josh Willingham grounded into an inning-ending double play.
Atlanta got things going in the bottom of the second when Garret Anderson and Adam LaRoche hit a pair of solo shots to take the lead away from Washington. The Nationals tied it back up in the top of the seventh inning when a Ronnie Belliard single drove in Elijah Dukes.
The seventh was the last inning that Lowe would work. He continued to struggle with his control of the strike zone, walking four batters in seven innings pitched. Still, Lowe had the ground ball machine in full effect, generating 11 of outs via the grounder.
In the bottom of the seventh, Adam LaRoche quickly helped the Braves retake the lead on the strength of his second solo homerun of the game. Atlanta pulled away in the bottom of the eight with a three-run inning that got kick-started by a Martin Prado solo shot. LaRoche and Greg Norton walked in the Braves' final two runs later that inning.
Notes:
LaRoche continues to be scorching hot, with 13 hits in 35 at bats, including three homeruns, since he was acquired from Boston.
The Rockies and Phillies both won tonight (the latter in Pedro Martinez' triumphant debut), so the Braves don't gain any ground in the wild card or the NL East with tonight's win.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
Adam LaRoche returns to Atlanta - but does he make the Braves any better?
In case you missed it, Casey Kotchman was traded to the Boston Red Sox on Friday for Adam LaRoche. So did the Braves improve their playoffs odds with this move, or are they just rearranging the deck chairs on a sinking ship?
Baseball Prospectus' remainder-of-season projections have LaRoche being an upgrade of 1.8 runs over Casey Kotchman with the bat. Fielding Runs Above Replacement has their year-to-date defensive performances being pretty similar.
The biggest difference between LaRoche and Kotchman? For the balance of the season, Kotchman is due about $1.07 million against LaRoche's $2.6 million. So the Braves are paying roughly $850,000 for just under two additional runs. The Red Sox are supposed to have included cash considerations, but those details have not been made available.
Also, LaRoche will be a free agent at the end of the season. According to an approximation of the Elias Sports Bureau rankings, LaRoche will fall just short of being a Type B free agent, meaning that the Braves will receive no draft pick compensation if LaRoche declines arbitration. Kotchman, on the other hand would have been cheap and under team control through 2012.
Though I've made no secret of my belief that Casey Kotchman is a severely inadequate first baseman, he still has his peak years ahead of him, and he's not so bad if you're thinking of him as nothing more than an affordable stop-gap to get you to the Freddie Freeman era.
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