Cubs shut out Braves in Atlanta's first loss

Last night's 2-0 shutout was a bitter defeat for the Braves in the style of many of the Braves' losses over the past couple of seasons: solid pitching backed by an offense that could get runners on base but couldn't drive them in. (The Braves stranded 12 baserunners on Thursday night).

Tyler Colvin's solo homerun in the top of the second put the Cubs ahead for good. In the fourth inning, Marlon Byrd's second homerun of the year plated the game's final run.

The loss was especially frustrating because - despite the homeruns - Tommy Hanson (5 1/3 IP, 7 K, 3 BB, 4 H) outpitched Randy Wells (6 IP, 1 K, 2 BB).

The Braves nearly won the game in the bottom of the ninth when Eric Hinske took a Carlos Marmol pitch to deep center with Nate McLouth and Yunel Escobar on base. The ball was well-struck but ultimately hauled in by Marlon Byrd for the second out of the ninth inning. Melky Cabrera unceremoniously struck out to end the game.

Lastly, you probably inferred this next bit of news from the fact that I mentioned that the Braves played a baseball game yesterday, but here goes: Chipper Jones injured his oblique and is expected to miss 2-3 days.

Braves make Damon an offer he might refuse

With rumors that the Braves have offered Johnny Damon a one-year contract hitting the twitterverse on Wednesday afternoon, I thought this might be a good opportunity to look at what Mr. Damon might be worth to the Braves in 2010.

CHONE projects Damon as being worth 3.2 WAR in 2010. Let's suppose the Braves' current left fielder (an amalgamation of Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, Eric Hinske, and various other fourth outfielders) would be worth 1 WAR in 2010. Signing Damon, then, would provide add 2.2 marginal wins. That would make him worth $7.7 million to the Braves in 2010.

Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is reporting that the Braves' initial offer is for one year at about $5 million, a portion of which would be deferred. If Damon ended up signing for this amount, that would provide the Braves with $2.7 million of consumer surplus. Damon may be even more valuable if those two extra wins are enough to put the Braves in the playoffs. Most forecasts currently have the Braves in the playoff hunt, but not quite in the playoffs.

The Braves' newfound interest in Damon might come as a surprise to those who heeded overmuch Frank Wren's declaration that the Braves weren't planning on making any more player acquisitions this off season. Though the comment angered many Braves fans at the time, in retrospect, it may have been a shrewd move. Wren is, after all, having to wrangle with Scott Boras to try to make Johnny Damon a Brave. Why tip your hand that you're still looking for another outfielder? Boras has already shown that he can produce teams that are interested in his clients out of whole cloth. There would have been little point in allowing Boras to use such a comment to ramp up the perception of demand for Mr. Damon's services.

Possible free agent First Base targets

The following are some first basemen the Braves might look to target in the upcoming free agency period. No players with WARPs under 0.5 were considered because, hey, even the Braves have standards.

Player (2009 WARP)
Adam LaRoche (3.9)
Russell Branyan (2.9)
Nick Johnson (2.9)
Fernando Tatis (2.1)
Eric Hinske (1.1)
Carlos Delgado (0.8)
Dmitri Young (0.5)

Based on last season's Wins Above Replacement Player, Adam LaRoche will be the best first baseman hitting the free agent market this offseason. As such, it would make a great deal of sense for the Braves to offer LaRoche salary arbitration. Should he decline the offer, don't be surprised to see Atlanta pursue him as a free agent. It would be difficult to imaginge that Frank Wren would let first base go virtually unattended for a second consecutive season. Should the price tag for LaRoche be too high, there will be some other interesting options available to the Braves.

No one questions Nick Johnson's talent, but he's been a disabled list mainstay for the better part of the decade.

Russell Branyan has finally begun to thrive after being given a shot at regular playing time the past two seasons.

Carlos Delgado was well on the way to following up on a resurgent 2008 campaign when hip surgery put him on the shelf for all but 100 PAs in 2009. He might be an interesting candidate for the vacancy if the Braves can sign him cheaply.

Lastly, there's always the option of moving Chipper Jones over to first base. Doing so would relieve the Braves' pitching staff of Chipper's increasingly miserable defense, help Chipper stay healthy, and fill the Braves' vacancy at first base with a player already on the payroll.



This article can also be viewed at the Braves Baseball Blog.