Melky Cabrera Revisited (plus closure on the never-ending Johnny Damon saga)

As Bob Dylan's Highway 61 Revisited is widely considered to be among the most influential Rock & Roll albums of all time, so shall this post be revered as one of the most influential Melky Cabrera blog entries of all time.

OK, maybe that's overstating it. But I do have an interesting nugget of information to consider along with my well-documented skepticism regarding Mr. Cabrera's chances of making a positive contribution to Atlanta's 2010 playoff push.

Melky Cabrera is a very interesting case, as he has gone from being extremely overrated in New York to being greatly underappreciated as an Atlanta Brave, with much thanks for that owed to the fan base's anger over trading Javier Vazquez. For what it's worth, the CHONE projection system appears to love Melky in 2010. In 562 PA, they have him hitting .296/.367/.441. After considering Melky's defensive contributions, his projected 2010 value based on the CHONE projection is 3.4 wins above replacement (WAR). In case you're keeping score at home, that's 0.2 WAR better than Johnny Damon's 2010 CHONE projection. (For a fantastic primer on WAR, check this out.)

Now, as far as outliers go, CHONE's weighted on base average (wOBA) projection of .358 for Cabrera is a pretty big one. (For a fantastic primer on wOBA, check this out.) The second-most generous Cabrera projection (Bill James) approximates a wOBA of .330. That impressive wOBA seems to be inflated by a .318 BABIP that deviates sharply from his BABIP of .288, .271, and .295 in the past three seasons. But it's not entirely reliant on fluke singles. Bill James projects an ISO of just .128 against CHONE's .145, including 8 more doubles in 50 fewer plate appearances. In 2009, Cabrera registered an ISO of .142 - so CHONE's power projection seems pretty reasonable, especially since Melky is still in the growth phase of his career.

If we adjust Cabrera's BABIP to .300, his triple slash projection drops to .281/.325/.426, resulting in a wOBA decrease of .012, which causes us to adjust his WAR value to 2.7, or 0.5 WAR less than Johnny Damon's projection.

If this estimation of Cabrera's value is in line with the front office's expectations, much of Frank Wren's recent behavior makes sense. No wonder he was lowballing Johnny Damon - he only stood to gain half a win, which can be had for about $1.75 million in this free agent market.

I say all of this to make the following point: even though we lost out on Johnny Damon, he's not so great that his value can't be replaced by a Melky Cabrera who slightly outperforms expectations.

Atlanta's courtship of Johnny Damon: is there a Plan B?

With word getting around on Thursday that the Tigers would likely be willing to exceed the Braves' one-year, $4 million offer to Johnny Damon, many journalists reasserted their belief that Detroit is the favorite to land Damon. Yesterday, I calculated that the Braves could go as high as $7.7 million and still get fair value for Damon.

But what if the Tigers do outbid Atlanta? Are there any other remaining free agents left field options for the Braves? Not really. The only thing that comes close is Jermaine Dye, who is projected by CHONE to have a 1.3 WAR season in 2010. That would make him worth about $1.05 million to the Braves in added line-up value.

Dye was sub-replacement in 2009, so any investment here - no matter how small - would bear considerable risk, even if it's only $1.05 million. Garret Anderson was signed to an equally cheap contract in 2009 and was awful. The sunk cost of the contract could have been easily overcome, but Bobby Cox's insistence on having him play 133 games as a sub-replacement player could not.

Should you choose to look more closely at Dye's 2009, you might notice his dramatic platoon splits (.236/.323/.434 vs. RHP, .292/.387/.508 vs. LHP). So it would appear that he might possess some value on the short end of a left field platoon. Perhaps, but not for the Braves. Matt Diaz is a career .347/.384/.537 hitter against lefties, so having Dye steal his at bats would actually be counterproductive.

The only context, then, in which signing Dye might make sense would be if Jason Heyward was going to start the year in AAA. In that case, the Braves might be well-served by a three-way outfield platoon of Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, and Jermaine Dye. But if you're going to get into the business of assembling platoons, you might as well look toward someone like Jonny Gomes who - despited his limitations as a player - has a much more appropriate estimation of his market value.

UPDATE: FanGraphs also chimed in on why teams are avoiding Jermaine Dye like the plague.

Braves make Damon an offer he might refuse

With rumors that the Braves have offered Johnny Damon a one-year contract hitting the twitterverse on Wednesday afternoon, I thought this might be a good opportunity to look at what Mr. Damon might be worth to the Braves in 2010.

CHONE projects Damon as being worth 3.2 WAR in 2010. Let's suppose the Braves' current left fielder (an amalgamation of Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera, Eric Hinske, and various other fourth outfielders) would be worth 1 WAR in 2010. Signing Damon, then, would provide add 2.2 marginal wins. That would make him worth $7.7 million to the Braves in 2010.

Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is reporting that the Braves' initial offer is for one year at about $5 million, a portion of which would be deferred. If Damon ended up signing for this amount, that would provide the Braves with $2.7 million of consumer surplus. Damon may be even more valuable if those two extra wins are enough to put the Braves in the playoffs. Most forecasts currently have the Braves in the playoff hunt, but not quite in the playoffs.

The Braves' newfound interest in Damon might come as a surprise to those who heeded overmuch Frank Wren's declaration that the Braves weren't planning on making any more player acquisitions this off season. Though the comment angered many Braves fans at the time, in retrospect, it may have been a shrewd move. Wren is, after all, having to wrangle with Scott Boras to try to make Johnny Damon a Brave. Why tip your hand that you're still looking for another outfielder? Boras has already shown that he can produce teams that are interested in his clients out of whole cloth. There would have been little point in allowing Boras to use such a comment to ramp up the perception of demand for Mr. Damon's services.

Wednesday's Braves Buzz

The Yankees signed Randy Winn to a one-yer deal, virtually eliminating the possibility that Johnny Damon might be wearing pinstripes next year. While this would seemingly open a window for the Braves to make a move on Damon (who has fewer and fewer options), the Rays are being aggressive early on.

David O'Brien reports that the Braves are not pursuing Jim Edmonds. Although I don't know that anybody really thought there was much risk of that.

The Mets are rumored to be interested in ex-Brave John Smoltz. For my money, this would be the Mets' best signing of the off season (unless you count successfully not signing Bengie Molina).

Keith Law ranks the Braves' farm system as fifth-best in MLB.

Possible Left Field Free Agent Targets

The following are some left fielders the Braves might look to target in the upcoming free agency period. No players with WARPs under 0.5 were considered because, hey, even the Braves have standards.

Player (2009 WARP)
Jason Bay (6.3)
Carl Crawford (4.7) $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Matt Holliday (4.6)
Manny Ramirez (3.9) $20 MM player option
Johnny Damon (3.0)
Marlon Byrd (2.2)
Fernando Tatis (2.1)
Randy Winn (1.9)
Gary Sheffield (1.5)
Gabe Kapler (1.1)

You may be noticing that the Braves' 2009 left fielder, Garret Anderson, was excluded from this list. Yeah, that's because his WARP was a 'professional-hitting' 0.1.

Jason Bay will be the cream of the left field free agent crop, 1.6 wins ahead of Carl Crawford, who likely won't repeat his 2009 output during any other season in his career.

You have to imagine the Red Sox & Yankees will be furiously competing for Jason Bay and Matt Holliday.

There might be some decent value to be had from Johnny Damon, but he's represented by Scott Boras and is projected to be a Type A free agent. I could see it getting very close to spring training without Damon having signed a contract.

If the Braves want to go the safe, cheap route, Randy Winn is probably the way to go. Otherwise, they'll likely have to overspend to bring home any of the big names on this list.

Don't forget that our 2010 Free Agent Targets page will be continuously updated throughout the offseason, where you can link to our analysis of the Braves' other vacancies heading into 2010.



This article also appears at the Braves Baseball Blog.