Chipper's eighth inning blast pushes Braves past Cubs

Another dramatic homerun stole the show on Wednesday night. This time, it was Chipper Jones hitting a two-run homer to center field in the bottom of the eighth to drive in the game-tying and -winning runs against the Chicago Cubs. John Grabow took the loss for the North Siders.

Ryan Dempster (RHP, CHC) was dominant in the loss, striking out nine in just six innings of work while walking just two. A Jason Heyward double in the second inning drove in the only run that Dempster allowed.

Jair Jurrjens' performance was less impressive. He walked two, struck out just as many, and allowed two runs in 5 IP. Screaming Indian favorite Kris Medlen worked two solid innings of relief (2 H, 2 K, 0 BB, 0 R). Peter Moylan picked up a vulture win, and Billy Wagner was lights-out in the ninth, recording all three outs via the K.

The three game series concludes on Thursday with a showdown between Randy Wells and Tommy Hanson. Advantage: Braves.

NOTE: I had previously written that Hit Tracker recorded Jason Heyward's Opening Day homerun at 433 feet. They are now saying that it was 476 feet, with a speed off the bat of 120 MPH. Yowza. Needless to say, it was upgraded from "Plenty" to "No Doubt".

Jair Jurrjens to undergo precautionary MRI this week

Word got out on Presidents' Day that Jair Jurrjens would undergo a precautionary MRI on his sore right shoulder. Though club officials are insisting that the procedure is merely prophylactic (team trainers are saying there appears to be no structural damage), there may be some reason for concern in the long term. The 24-year-old Jurrjens has already endured a heavy workload in his brief career, pitching 403 1/3 innings in his two major league seasons.

Additionally, it appears that the increased workload is having a deleterious effect on his base skills. Jurrjens' strikeout rate declined from 6.64 in 2008 to 6.36 in 2009, and his groundball rate dropped from 51.5% to 42.9%.

Still, Jurrjens came on strong in the second half of 2009, so maybe my concern is misplaced. Should Jair's shoulder falter, Kris Medlen will be at the ready to step in for some spot starts.

Jurrjens' 2009 Projections
The Bill James Baseball Handbook: 210 IP, 6.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster: 203 IP, 6.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.50 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Baseball Prospectus/PECOTA: 196 IP, 141 K, 66 BB, 3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
CHONE: 172 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

Soriano accepts arbitration offer from Braves

Rafael Soriano was one of only three players to accept arbitration as the deadline to do so came and went at 12:00 AM Eastern Tuesday morning.

It's expected Soriano will be awarded somewhere between $6.5 million to $7 million. Under arbirtration rules, the contract is not guaranteed, but the Braves cannot trade Soriano until after June 1st unless they first obtain his persmission.

Suddenly, the Braves have a deep, expensive bullpen headed by Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, and Rafael Soriano, who will command a total of about $17 million in 2010.

Frank Wren may try to move Soriano along with Derek Lowe and Kelly Johnson via trade, but Soriano's hefty price tag paired with his difficulty staying healthy over the past several seasons may make him a difficult pawn to maneuver during this Hot Stove Season.

Also returning in the Atlanta bullpen are Peter Moylan, Kris Medlen, Eric O'Flaherty, & Manny Acosta. Boone Logan, Jo-Jo Reyes and either Derek Lowe or Kenshin Kawakami may also figure into the mix.

Medlen indifferent between starting and relieving

In a piece he wrote for this month's issue of Chop Talk magazine, Kris Medlen writes that he is indifferent between starting and relieving:

I honestly don't have a preference between starting and relieving. I like pitching. I'm a versatile guy, and I just want to be in a position to help my team. I want the guys to trust me with that job.

Honestly, this puff piece doesn't tell us much. What's he going to say? That he hates relieving and demands to be traded if he's not returned to his starting role?

Medlen as a starter: 18 1/3 IP, 19 K, 11 BB, 6.38 ERA
Medlen as a reliever: 49 1/3 IP, 53 K, 19 BB, 3.47 ERA

As a reliever in 2009, Medlen was used thirteen times for two or more innings, seemingly leaving open the possibility of an eventual return to the rotation. I've mentioned before that I think handcuffing Medlen to Tommy Hanson's starts for a long relief role would be a creative way to limit Hanson's innings in just his second major league season.



This article can also be viewed at the Braves Baseball Blog.

I am Medlen; hear me roar!

A couple of weeks ago, we highlighted the success Kris Medlen has enjoyed since being converted to a reliever and argued that he be used more frequently and in more high-leverage situations.

Since that time, Medlen has made us look brilliant (13 2/3 IP, 15 K, 2 BB, 2 ER over the past 31 days), but he still isn't being used in critical situations. Of the his colleagues in the Atlanta bullpen, his .56 Leverage Index tops only Manny Acosta and James Parr.

13 2/3 innings of work indicate that Bobby Cox is starting to use him more, but dammit Bobby (said in best King of the Hill impression) start using him more when the game is on the line!

Braves rout Brewers 10-2

A game that had the makings of a pitchers' duel through the fifth inning turned into a slugfest by the end of the sixth. Already up 1-0 on a first inning Brian McCann double that drove in Nate McLouth, the Braves put a four-spot on the Brewers in the top of the sixth, fueled by a McCann walk, singles by Garrett Anderson and Matt Diaz, and a two-run homer by Casey Kotchman to cap the rally.

The Brewers answered with two runs in the bottom of the inning off of Derek Lowe, who had a solid but unspectacular outing, walking none while striking out three. Ten out of the 15 outs Lowe induced on balls in play came via the ground ball, so the groundball machine was in peak form today.

Kelly Johnson was impressive in his first start back from the disabled list, going 3-for-4 with a walk, a homerun, 2 doubles, and a stolen base.

Kris Medlen gave up one hit in a scoreless ninth inning. The Braves were already up 8 runs when he came into the game, but one can't help but wonder if Bobby Cox's decision to use him in the 9th was a test to see how well he might do in high-leverage relief situations. Last week, we suggested that such a role would be the ideal short-term use of Mr Medlen.



The win allowed the Braves to keep pace with the Rockies in the NL wild card race. Colorado topped San Francisco 4-2 on Sunday.

The Braves are off on Monday but pick things back up on Tuesday against the Marlins, who are currently tied with the Braves for second place in the NL East.

Kris Medlen: use him or send him down

I'm big on Kris Medlen. Probably moreso than most. He does have a smallish frame and probably projects longterm as a high-leverage reliever rather than a front-end starter. But still, the man has some talent, as evidenced by the success he had prior to his call-up (37 2/3 IP, 44K, 10BB, 20 H, 1.19 ERA at AAA).

But you wouldn't know Medlen was one of the Braves' top prospects by the way Bobby Cox has been using him over the past couple of months. Since moving to the bullpen following a start on May 31st in which he dominated the Diamondbacks (6 IP, 9K, 1BB,4H, 1ER), Medlen has only made ten appearances out of the Braves' bullpen.

Medlen's performance in the big leagues has been hit or miss so far. He's dominant on some nights but can't find the plate on others. But there's good news! We are able to isolate his bad performances from his good performances by analyzing the duration of his appearances.

In games in which he has pitched more than two innings, Medlen has 27K/19BB with 20 ER in just 26 innings. When Medlen has pitched 2 innings or less, he's put up 10 K against 1 BB in 8 IP. True, this is a very small sample. But through four MLB starts, Medlen has proven he isn't ready to be a full-time SP (although he might already be a more interesting option than Kenshin Kawakami), and since the evidence so far has indicated that he might be an effective one or two inning relief pitcher, that option ought to be worth exploring.

If not, send him back down to AAA Gwinnett, and keep stretching him out as a starter.