Ken Rosenthal reports that Kenshin Kawakami, whom you know from his work as a near-replacement level pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, could be acquired by one of two Japanese clubs that are reportedly willing to eat half of the $6.67 million owed to the 35-year-old RHP who was granted the dubious honor of a spring training non-roster invite.
His contract is a sunk cost, and in a market where $3 million buys one year of Manny Ramirez with change to spare, you have to take any opportunity available to dump a bad contract.
The Braves' 2011 payroll obligations (approximately $83 million) are currently $3 million greater than they were during 2010.
Showing posts with label Kenshin Kawakami. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kenshin Kawakami. Show all posts
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Friday, December 18, 2009
Derek Lowe & the rush to judgement
Derek Lowe did not have a good 2009. One year after accepting a 4 year, $60 million contract to come to play for the Braves, Lowe is all but being run out of town on a pole. Wren may have no choice but to trade Lowe at this point, as all the trade talk understandably has the veteran righty all hot and bothered.
Though there may be disagreement about the order I have chosen, few would dispute that the following are the Braves' top starters going into 2010.
1) Javier Vazquez
2) Tim Hudson
3) Tommy Hanson
4) Jair Jurrjens
The uncertainty in the rotation arises from the fifth starter spot. Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and (maybe) Kris Medlen are Atlanta's most viable contenders for the vacancy. It seems that everyone is assuming that Derek Lowe isn't the Braves' fifth-best starter. I don't think this is a safe assumption.
At minimum, I think Lowe is at least as good as Kawakami going forward (and probably better) and also happens to have a long track record of being an outstanding MLB pitcher. Consider two pitcher-seasons:
Pitcher A: 1.8 K/BB 42%/39% GB/FB ratio
Pitcher B: 1.8 K/BB 56%/26% GB/FB ratio
Which do you prefer? Pitcher B? Me too. You, my friend, have just indicated that you preferred Derek Lowe's 2009 to Kenshin Kawakami's.
Sure, at $15 million a year, Lowe is badly overpaid. But, in a league where contracts are guaranteed, bad investments are sunk costs. And when you're dealing with sunk costs, you have to forget the fact that Lowe is overpaid and go with the best player.
Though there may be disagreement about the order I have chosen, few would dispute that the following are the Braves' top starters going into 2010.
1) Javier Vazquez
2) Tim Hudson
3) Tommy Hanson
4) Jair Jurrjens
The uncertainty in the rotation arises from the fifth starter spot. Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and (maybe) Kris Medlen are Atlanta's most viable contenders for the vacancy. It seems that everyone is assuming that Derek Lowe isn't the Braves' fifth-best starter. I don't think this is a safe assumption.
At minimum, I think Lowe is at least as good as Kawakami going forward (and probably better) and also happens to have a long track record of being an outstanding MLB pitcher. Consider two pitcher-seasons:
Pitcher A: 1.8 K/BB 42%/39% GB/FB ratio
Pitcher B: 1.8 K/BB 56%/26% GB/FB ratio
Which do you prefer? Pitcher B? Me too. You, my friend, have just indicated that you preferred Derek Lowe's 2009 to Kenshin Kawakami's.
Sure, at $15 million a year, Lowe is badly overpaid. But, in a league where contracts are guaranteed, bad investments are sunk costs. And when you're dealing with sunk costs, you have to forget the fact that Lowe is overpaid and go with the best player.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Soriano accepts arbitration offer from Braves
Rafael Soriano was one of only three players to accept arbitration as the deadline to do so came and went at 12:00 AM Eastern Tuesday morning.
It's expected Soriano will be awarded somewhere between $6.5 million to $7 million. Under arbirtration rules, the contract is not guaranteed, but the Braves cannot trade Soriano until after June 1st unless they first obtain his persmission.
Suddenly, the Braves have a deep, expensive bullpen headed by Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, and Rafael Soriano, who will command a total of about $17 million in 2010.
Frank Wren may try to move Soriano along with Derek Lowe and Kelly Johnson via trade, but Soriano's hefty price tag paired with his difficulty staying healthy over the past several seasons may make him a difficult pawn to maneuver during this Hot Stove Season.
Also returning in the Atlanta bullpen are Peter Moylan, Kris Medlen, Eric O'Flaherty, & Manny Acosta. Boone Logan, Jo-Jo Reyes and either Derek Lowe or Kenshin Kawakami may also figure into the mix.
It's expected Soriano will be awarded somewhere between $6.5 million to $7 million. Under arbirtration rules, the contract is not guaranteed, but the Braves cannot trade Soriano until after June 1st unless they first obtain his persmission.
Suddenly, the Braves have a deep, expensive bullpen headed by Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, and Rafael Soriano, who will command a total of about $17 million in 2010.
Frank Wren may try to move Soriano along with Derek Lowe and Kelly Johnson via trade, but Soriano's hefty price tag paired with his difficulty staying healthy over the past several seasons may make him a difficult pawn to maneuver during this Hot Stove Season.
Also returning in the Atlanta bullpen are Peter Moylan, Kris Medlen, Eric O'Flaherty, & Manny Acosta. Boone Logan, Jo-Jo Reyes and either Derek Lowe or Kenshin Kawakami may also figure into the mix.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Kawakami / Stauffer in Game 2
With last night's extra innings loss to the Padres and the Rockies' victory over the Dodgers, the Braves are now 5.5 games back of the wild card. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds give them a 25.37% chance of making it to the postseason, down 7% from yesterday.
Needing a string of minor miracles to make it to a 163rd game this season, the Braves send Kenshin Kawakami to the hill on Wednesday to face Tim Stauffer. Kawakami has been slightly more effective over the past month, trading strikeouts for a diminished walk rate and a 3.77 ERA over the past 31 days (5.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 over that time).
Stauffer is a former prospect whose star has faded following a string of injuries. He's been effective in his brief time (41 IP) with San Diego this season, striking out 37 against 14 walks for a 3.95 ERA.
Needing a string of minor miracles to make it to a 163rd game this season, the Braves send Kenshin Kawakami to the hill on Wednesday to face Tim Stauffer. Kawakami has been slightly more effective over the past month, trading strikeouts for a diminished walk rate and a 3.77 ERA over the past 31 days (5.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 over that time).
Stauffer is a former prospect whose star has faded following a string of injuries. He's been effective in his brief time (41 IP) with San Diego this season, striking out 37 against 14 walks for a 3.95 ERA.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
The spectre of Tim Hudson looms over Turner Field as Kawakami takes on Phillies
Today's Pitching Matchup: Cole Hamels (LHP, Phillies) vs. Kenshin Kawakami (RHP, Braves)
It's easy to look at Cole Hamels' stellar 2008 and forget that for much of his career he's been dogged by the dreaded label of "injury-prone". But that label is not an uncommon one among young pitchers, especially ones that have endured the heavy workload that Hamels bore last season (223 1/3 IP, not including playoffs). Though he's spent some time on the disabled list this season, Hamels has performed admirably (128 1/3 IP, 111 K, 27 BB, 41% GB rate). There is some cause for concern, as he's on a three-year downward trend in strikeouts per nine (9.9, 8.7, 7.8).
There's little good that can be said about what Hamels' opponent, Kenshin Kawakami, has done this season (118 IP, 84 K, 49 BB). If Kawakami can outperform Hamels on Saturday, it will be huge not only for the Braves' postseason hopes but for Kawakami's hopes of remaining in the rotation. On August 13th, Tim Hudson pitched four innings against AAA Durham (Tampa Bay), striking out three, walking one, and giving up five hits in four innings pitched.
It's easy to look at Cole Hamels' stellar 2008 and forget that for much of his career he's been dogged by the dreaded label of "injury-prone". But that label is not an uncommon one among young pitchers, especially ones that have endured the heavy workload that Hamels bore last season (223 1/3 IP, not including playoffs). Though he's spent some time on the disabled list this season, Hamels has performed admirably (128 1/3 IP, 111 K, 27 BB, 41% GB rate). There is some cause for concern, as he's on a three-year downward trend in strikeouts per nine (9.9, 8.7, 7.8).
There's little good that can be said about what Hamels' opponent, Kenshin Kawakami, has done this season (118 IP, 84 K, 49 BB). If Kawakami can outperform Hamels on Saturday, it will be huge not only for the Braves' postseason hopes but for Kawakami's hopes of remaining in the rotation. On August 13th, Tim Hudson pitched four innings against AAA Durham (Tampa Bay), striking out three, walking one, and giving up five hits in four innings pitched.
Monday, August 3, 2009
Punchless Braves bats offer no support for Kawakami
Despite my numerous castigations of Kenshin Kawakami's performance this season, he was pretty decent on Monday night (6 IP, 4K, 0 BB, 1 HR, 3 ER). Kawakami pitched just as well as - if not better than - his opponent, Mat Latos (7 IP, 3 K, 2 BB, 1 HR).
But the Braves offense provided little succor for Kawakami, mustering just 6 hits, including but one extra base hit - a homerun by Adam LaRoche in the second inning that put the Braves up 2-1. The Padres knotted the game back up in the second on a Kyle Blanks solo shot. A Will Venable single in the bottom of the third drove in David Eckstein. That would be all of the offense the Padres would need to put the Braves away, as Latos and the San Diego bullpen combined to shut Atlanta out over the final seven frames.
The Braves have scored just 19 runs in the last seven games and will need to pick up the pace if they want to salvage any of their rapidly receding playoff hopes. With the loss, the Braves fall 5.5 games back of the Rockies for the NL Wild Card spot.
Kawakami looks to get his act together against Latos, Padres
There's tip-toeing to be done around this fact: Kenshin Kawakami was horrendous his last time out. But if there was ever an opportunity to turn things around, Kenshin will have one when he faces the gutted San Diego Padres on Monday night.
The Padres no longer have Jake Peavy, but the Braves will have the misfortune of facing the best rookie San Diego pitcher since Peavy: 21-year-old RHP Mat Latos. Young Mat has been stellar in his first 16 1/3 innings in the majors (13 K, 4 BB, 9 H, 5 ER). If there's a chink to be found in Latos' armor, it's his 59% flyball rate. When major league batters are hitting that many balls in the air, several of them are bound to leave the yard. But there is one obvious factor mitigating the impact of this weakness - tonight's game will be played in PETCO, a park that has been very generous to the likes of flyball pitchers Jake Peavy and Chris Young over the years.
Kawakami will also enjoy the benefits of PETCO. Though he doesn't have the extreme GB/FB split of Latos, he's no GB artist (41% FB). But it's Kawakami's other skills that need improvement if he's to improve upon his woeful start against Florida last week. In the last 22 1/3 IP, Kawakami has struck out just 10 batters while walking 12.
Tim Hudson pitched 4 scoreless innings at AAA Gwinnett on July 27th... Just saying.
The Padres no longer have Jake Peavy, but the Braves will have the misfortune of facing the best rookie San Diego pitcher since Peavy: 21-year-old RHP Mat Latos. Young Mat has been stellar in his first 16 1/3 innings in the majors (13 K, 4 BB, 9 H, 5 ER). If there's a chink to be found in Latos' armor, it's his 59% flyball rate. When major league batters are hitting that many balls in the air, several of them are bound to leave the yard. But there is one obvious factor mitigating the impact of this weakness - tonight's game will be played in PETCO, a park that has been very generous to the likes of flyball pitchers Jake Peavy and Chris Young over the years.
Kawakami will also enjoy the benefits of PETCO. Though he doesn't have the extreme GB/FB split of Latos, he's no GB artist (41% FB). But it's Kawakami's other skills that need improvement if he's to improve upon his woeful start against Florida last week. In the last 22 1/3 IP, Kawakami has struck out just 10 batters while walking 12.
Tim Hudson pitched 4 scoreless innings at AAA Gwinnett on July 27th... Just saying.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Braves visibly frustrated as Kawakami founders
In Wednesday's 6-3 loss to the Marlins, Kenshin Kawakami did nothing to quiet rumblings that Tim Hudson might immediately supplant him in the starting rotation when he returns from his rehab assignment. Kawakami was, as he has been so often this season, god-awful. In in 4 1/3 innings, he allowed all six of the Marlins' runs, giving up 7 hits (including three HR) and walking three.
The slugfest started in the third inning when Hanley Ramirez drove in Emilio Bonifacio on an RBI triple. Pitcher Josh Johnson joined the party when he hit a three-run bomb off of Kawakami to push the lead to 4 in the bottom of the fourth.
Casey Kotchman hit a solo shot in the top of the fifth to open scoring for the Braves, who were threatening later in the same inning with Ryan Church and Nate McLouth on the corners with one out, but Josh Johnson got Martin Prado to ground into an inning-ending double play.
Hanley Ramirez continued to feast on Braves pitching with a solo shot in the bottom of the fifth. Dan Uggla followed with another homerun later in the inning. Garret Anderson answered right back with a two-run homer in the fifth that plated Brian McCann. But that was the last run the Braves would score on the evening.
Josh Johnson didn't have his best stuff tonight, striking out just one while allowing three runs on two homers in six innings, but the Braves couldn't overcome the disastrous performance by Kawakami and couldn't muster any offense once they got into the Marlins' bullpen.
Pinch-hitter and trade rumor subject Kelly Johnson hit a triple with two outs in the top of the ninth. But Johnson's heroics proved too little, too late as Leo Nunez slammed the door with a swinging strikeout by Nate McLouth.
Notes:
The Braves' frustration with their performance over the past two games was palpable in the eigth inning, when both Bobby Cox and Brian McCann were ejected following a dispute with the home plate umpire over the location of the strike zone.
Screaming Indian favorite Kris Medlen worked a scoreless inning and a third of relief, striking out one and walking one.
The Rockies were idle tonight, thanks to a rainout, so the Braves fell back another half game, leaving them four games out of the wild card spot.
The slugfest started in the third inning when Hanley Ramirez drove in Emilio Bonifacio on an RBI triple. Pitcher Josh Johnson joined the party when he hit a three-run bomb off of Kawakami to push the lead to 4 in the bottom of the fourth.
Casey Kotchman hit a solo shot in the top of the fifth to open scoring for the Braves, who were threatening later in the same inning with Ryan Church and Nate McLouth on the corners with one out, but Josh Johnson got Martin Prado to ground into an inning-ending double play.
Hanley Ramirez continued to feast on Braves pitching with a solo shot in the bottom of the fifth. Dan Uggla followed with another homerun later in the inning. Garret Anderson answered right back with a two-run homer in the fifth that plated Brian McCann. But that was the last run the Braves would score on the evening.
Josh Johnson didn't have his best stuff tonight, striking out just one while allowing three runs on two homers in six innings, but the Braves couldn't overcome the disastrous performance by Kawakami and couldn't muster any offense once they got into the Marlins' bullpen.
Pinch-hitter and trade rumor subject Kelly Johnson hit a triple with two outs in the top of the ninth. But Johnson's heroics proved too little, too late as Leo Nunez slammed the door with a swinging strikeout by Nate McLouth.
Notes:
The Braves' frustration with their performance over the past two games was palpable in the eigth inning, when both Bobby Cox and Brian McCann were ejected following a dispute with the home plate umpire over the location of the strike zone.
Screaming Indian favorite Kris Medlen worked a scoreless inning and a third of relief, striking out one and walking one.
The Rockies were idle tonight, thanks to a rainout, so the Braves fell back another half game, leaving them four games out of the wild card spot.
Wednesday's Braves/Marlins pitching matchup
The Marlins will have a decided advantage in Wednesday's pitching match-up as righties Kenshin Kawakami and Josh Johnson take the hill in the second game of the series between the Atlanta Braves and the Florida Marlins.
Josh Johnson has been superb so far in 2009, and one might be forgiven for not remembering that it was only a year ago that Johnson made his return from Tommy John surgery. Typically, post-TJ pitchers struggle with their control for a while after they come back, but this has not been the case for Johnson.
Johnson hit the ground running in the second half of 2008 and picked up right where he left off when the new season began. In 135 IP, Johnson has struck out 113 batters while walking just 35, yielding an earned run average of 2.80. When he's not missing bats altogether, Johnson has been able to induce ground balls at an impressive rate (54% GB rate in '09).
Though it will be hard to beat out the remarkable seasons of Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, and Javier Vazquez, Johnson should at least be in the conversation when people start filling out NL Cy Young ballots.
Much less impressive has been the Braves' Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami. The 34-year-old has been plagued by control problems all season long, walking almost 4 batters per nine innings on his way to a 4.04 ERA (an ERA he's fortunate to have given his 1.9 K/BB ratio).
Kawakami's struggles have gotten worse of late. Over the past month, he has walked as many batters as he has struck out. Somehow, he has managed a 3.27 ERA over that period of time. But if he doesn't turn things around soon, his luck will eventually run out.
If for no other reason, Kawakami needs a good start to quiet speculation that he might eventually be moved to the bullpen - the footsteps of Tim Hudson are only going to get louder.
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