Checking in on Mike Minor

The Screaming Indian has been very high on Mike Minor ever since he started striking out AA batters with reckless abandon in 2010. In fact, we billed him as the fifth overall and most MLB-ready of the Braves prospects.

It looks like he's going to slot in as the fifth starter for the Braves this year. But Minor offers mid-rotation upside, even in his rookie season, because he's already very polished.

One concerning trend that we noted in our write-up of Minor's prospect status is his sudden fly ball proclivity (47.6% flyball rate) upon being called up to the big leagues at the end of last season. So far this spring, Minor's groundout/airout ratio is an amazingly low 0.35. If this trend continues, the young lefty is going to be highly susceptible to the long ball in his rookie season. His 7/4 K/BB ratio in 10 IP is also a cause for concern.

Meanwhile, Brandon Beachy - Minor's competition for the role of fifth starter - has 7 Ks and 0 BBs in 5 innings with a GO/AO ratio of 1.67. It's worth noting that Beachy has been with the "B Squad" and facing weaker competition.

It's also worth noting that fans - particularly fans like me, who aren't scouts - are at a huge information disadvantage in spring training. Maybe Minor's working on some things, and we're not privy to what it is that he's working on. Maybe he's just struggling though. He hasn't surrendered any home runs yet (which has helped him coast to a glossy 0.90 ERA), but at the rate that he's giving up fly balls, he's going to be badly bruised the long ball if this trend does not reverse.

I don't think it's time to discount him yet, but I'd keep him on a short leash as we start the season. Beachy proved himself a competent enough option at the end of 2010.

#5 Prospect: Mike Minor

Mike Minor was Atlanta's first overall pick out of Vanderbilt in the 2009 draft. The selection was widely panned as a "signability pick"; at the time, most saw Minor's ceiling as a command and control lefty without average stuff destined for the back end of a Major Leauge rotation. But the Braves' front office either got lucky or saw something that no one else did, as former Commodore's fastball velocity jumped to 94 from the high 80s/ low 90s during his first full season as a pro in 2010.

Minor's breakthrough actually began in late 2009 in a 14 inning stretch in the South Atlantic League when he allowed just one run while striking out 17, walking none, and allowing just 10 hits. At the time, Minor's performance was dismissed as the work of a crafty college pitcher beating inferior hitters with superior polish. It was widely thought that Minor's flaws would be exposed when he reached the higher levels.

In 120.1 innings across AA and AAA in 2010, Minor continued to impress, as you can see in the table below:

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

Upon his promotion to the major leagues, Minor did not have the hoped-for results, but his skills remained intact:

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

Minor was hurt by the the 6 HR he allowed in 40 Major Leauge innings after giving up just 9 HR in three times as many innings between AA and AAA. This phenomenon had something to do with Minor's inability to sustain the 49% ground ball rate that he enjoyed at AAA. This rate dropped to 38% in Atlanta. Minor's opponents were also the beneficiaries of a flukish .392 batting average on balls in play.

Minor has shown that he can sustain his high strikeout and low walk rates in the major leagues. If he's able to bring the high GB rate, he could prove an above average mid-rotation starter for the Braves in 2011 as well as a solid speculation play in fantasy leagues.

Minor is the favorite to nab the fifth spot in the Braves' rotation going into April, and is the most MLB-ready of any Atlanta prospects.

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