#5 Prospect: Mike Minor

Mike Minor was Atlanta's first overall pick out of Vanderbilt in the 2009 draft. The selection was widely panned as a "signability pick"; at the time, most saw Minor's ceiling as a command and control lefty without average stuff destined for the back end of a Major Leauge rotation. But the Braves' front office either got lucky or saw something that no one else did, as former Commodore's fastball velocity jumped to 94 from the high 80s/ low 90s during his first full season as a pro in 2010.

Minor's breakthrough actually began in late 2009 in a 14 inning stretch in the South Atlantic League when he allowed just one run while striking out 17, walking none, and allowing just 10 hits. At the time, Minor's performance was dismissed as the work of a crafty college pitcher beating inferior hitters with superior polish. It was widely thought that Minor's flaws would be exposed when he reached the higher levels.

In 120.1 innings across AA and AAA in 2010, Minor continued to impress, as you can see in the table below:

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

Upon his promotion to the major leagues, Minor did not have the hoped-for results, but his skills remained intact:

Courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com

Minor was hurt by the the 6 HR he allowed in 40 Major Leauge innings after giving up just 9 HR in three times as many innings between AA and AAA. This phenomenon had something to do with Minor's inability to sustain the 49% ground ball rate that he enjoyed at AAA. This rate dropped to 38% in Atlanta. Minor's opponents were also the beneficiaries of a flukish .392 batting average on balls in play.

Minor has shown that he can sustain his high strikeout and low walk rates in the major leagues. If he's able to bring the high GB rate, he could prove an above average mid-rotation starter for the Braves in 2011 as well as a solid speculation play in fantasy leagues.

Minor is the favorite to nab the fifth spot in the Braves' rotation going into April, and is the most MLB-ready of any Atlanta prospects.

<< Previous (#4: Randall Delgado)

Jim Callis talks Teheran, Freeman, 2011 draft

Baseball America's Jim Callis answered some Braves-relates on his Twitter feed today:

Read Screaming Indian's analysis of Julio Teheran and Freddie Freeman here and here. Julio and Freddie were numbers one and two in our top prospects ranking.

Callis also broke down the order of the 2011 amateur draft. The Braves' first pick will be the 28th overall selection. Anyone who knows me at all also knows that I hope that by some miracle this young man is still on the board when the Braves make their first pick.

#4 Prospect: Randall Delgado

Randall Delgado gives the Braves yet another exciting, young power pitcher. The Panamanian right-hander turns 21 on Tuesday and will probably break camp with AA Mississippi, which might have the best starting rotation in the minors if system mates Julio Teheran and Arodys Vizcaino are also assigned there.

Delgado profiles similarly to Teheran and Vizcaino but doesn't have as high of a ceiling. He's about a year older than both of them, throws his fastball a tick or two more slowly, and his secondary offerings aren't as refined - which isn't to dump on Delgado, it's just difficult not to talk about him in relation to those two.

Randall was stellar at High-A Myrtle Beach in 2010, striking out more than 25% of batters faced while walking just 32 and giving up 89 hits in 117 IP. Like every other advanced arm in the Braves' system, it seems, Delgado struggled after a late-season promotion to AA. Delgado continued to miss bats, but he had difficulty consistently finding the strike zone (20 BB in 40 2/3 IP).

Delgado projects as a solid #3 starter or a maybe even a #2, and he would probably be a top two prospect in most other systems, but with Teheran and Vizcaino ahead of him, the Braves can afford to trade Delgado if a need arises in the majors (or if the McLouth/Schafer platoon in center becomes manifestly untenable). Alternatively, it would be perhaps more interesting to see if Frank Wren would be amenable to flipping one of the Teheran/Vizcaino/Delgado trio to address this system's only real weakness - a relative dearth of up-the-middle talent.

ETA: The Braves are too stacked with pitching depth to worry about rushing his development. Barring a rash of injuries to the major league pitching staff in the next couple of years, I don't expect to see Delgado in the majors until late 2012 or early 2013. (The Braves have a $9 million club option on Tim Hudson's contract for 2013 with a $1 million buyout).

<< Previous (#3: Arodys Vizcaino)
>> Next (#5: Mike Minor)

#3 Prospect: Arodys Vizcaino

Arodys Vizcaino was the prize of last winter's Javier Vazquez trade. At the time of the trade I was unsure of how I felt about it*, but with the benefit of a hindsight that includes Vazquez' disastrous 2010 campaign with the Yankees and Vizcaino's strong showing for the single-A Rome Braves, Frank Wren is looking pretty smart for making this move.

Vizcaino brings a fastball that sits 92-94 and touches 95 (even 96, according to a Mark Bowman source), an effective but inconsistent 82 MPH curve, and a very raw 80 MPH change.

Vizcaino's 2010 season was very similar to that of Julio Teheran - except that Vizcaino is about a month and a half older and was doing it at a lower level. In 72 1/3 IP of A-ball, Vizcaino struck out 68 against 9 walks while giving up just 63 hits for a WHIP of less than one. Upon a promotion to High-A Myrtle Beach, Vizcaino continued to display solid command of the strike zone but got hit pretty hard (8 extra base hits) in a limited 13 2/3 inning run before succumbing to a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament and getting shut down for the season. Luckily, Vizcaino was able to avoid Tommy John surgery, but the risk of re-injury casts a shadow over his 2011 season.

For that reason I think hope the Braves will be very conservative with Arodys in 2011. I expect him to be placed with Myrtle Beach or maybe Double-A Mississippi, depending on how good he looks as a spring training NRI. But I'd put his chances of reaching the big leagues at "approaching 0%" simply because the Braves have pitching depth and there's no reason to rush him. Barring injury, I expect him to show up in the big leagues by mid-2012 or Opening Day 2013 (the first game the Braves will play with Derek Lowe's contract off of the books).

Check out this video of Vizcaino throwing last June:


*In the article that I link to, I mention that the trade looks a lot better for the Braves if Melky Cabrera ends up getting traded or non-tendered, which I only bring up because I find it amusing.

>> Next (#4: Randall Delgado)
<< Previous (#2: Freddie Freeman)

#2 Prospect: Freddie Freeman

By all accounts, Freddie Freeman will be the Braves' opening day first baseman. No Brave that still qualifies as a prospect (save perhaps Craig Kimbrel) is as ready to contribute to the major league roster as Freeman.

Many (including me) were puzzled by the decision to send Freeman to AAA to begin 2010 given his struggles in 169 plate appearances at AA in 2009 (.208/.308./.342), but Freeman surprised by putting up a robust triple slash line of .320/.378/.522 in 518 PA.

Freeman struggled mightily in limited big league at bats, going 4/24 with 8 strikeouts and no walks. He'll have to do better in 2011 if the Braves are going to avoid having first base be an offensive sink hole as it has so often in the post-McGriff era.

Freeman profiles as a John Olerud type minus the exceptional defensive play. Freddie doesn't walk a lot, but his high contact rate and gap power give him a chance to provide some offensive value. At his peak he should hit for a high average with about 20-25 HR and 30 doubles a year.

I'd say his upside in 2011 is something along the lines of Gaby Sanchez's 2010. Bill James projects an ambitious .282/.335/.446 line while Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster has him pegged for a more realistic .271/.322/.429 showing.

Freeman was ranked the #17 overall prospect by MLB.com and the #43 prospect by Keith Law.

>> Next (#3: Arodys Vizcaino)
<< Previous (#1 Julio Teheran)

Julio Teheran is the Braves' #1 prospect

Jason Heyward was the no-brainer #1 prospect in the Atlanta system going into last season. His graduation obviously hurts the strength of the farm system, but Julio Teheran makes a worthy top prospect as well. The Braves signed Teheran for $850,000 as a 16-year-old based on his raw projection, but as a 19-year-old in 2010, Teheran started to turn that raw projection into actualized skill.

The right-hander demolished the opposition at High-A Myrtle Beach, striking out 76 batters in just 63 and 1/3 innings pitched against 56 hits and 13 walks. Upon advancing to Double-A, Teheran struggled with his command, compiling a 38:17 K/BB ratio in 40 innings pitched. The jump from High A to AA is widely thought to be the second-toughest jump behind AAA to MLB. Look for Teheran to begin 2011 with the Double-A affiliate.

If Julio comes out of the gates in 2011 blowing hitters away with his mid-90s fastball, devastating curve, and above-average changeup like he did in A-ball while demonstrating improved command of the strike zone, he could be in a position to help the major league team down the stretch in September and into the playoffs. Personally, I think the Braves play this one conservatively given the wealth of young pitching talent already at their disposal, and we don't see Teheran until 2012.

But when he does arrive, we're looking at a top of the rotation starter with several All-Star seasons if he reaches his ceiling.

Teheran was ranked the 7th overall prospect by Keith Law and the 10th overall prospect by MLB.com.

>> Next (#2: Freddie Freeman)

Atlanta Braves Prospect Rankings Review

When it comes to the Braves' farm system, everyone agrees that Jason Heyward is far and away the best prospect in the system (and maybe anyone else's system, for that matter), that there is a scarcity up-the-middle talent, and that there is a wealth of high-upside power arms.

Potential 2010 MLBers:
Jason Heyward (RF)
Craig Kimbrel (RP)

High-upside power arms:
Julio Teheran (RHP)
Arodys Vizcaino (RHP)
Randall Delgado (RHP)

Check out what some of my favorite publications have to say about the Braves' minor league talent:

Baseball Prospectus
Fan Graphs
Baseball America
Keith Law

And for an in-depth look at prospects from around the league, check out the Minor League Baseball Analyst.