If you had told me five months ago that Derek Lowe (RHP, Braves) was going to be the 2010 opening day starter for the Atlanta Braves, I would have enjoyed a hearty laugh at your expense. Javier Vazquez and Tommy Hanson were easily the Braves' best pitchers in 2009 while Derek Lowe fell well short of the expectations set by his $60 million contract and seemed a safe bet to be traded. My, how things have changed.
Since Javier Vazquez was traded to the Yankees, Derek Lowe has gone from clubhouse pariah to number one starter. The Braves' newfound confidence in Lowe was buoyed by a dominant spring (18K/2BB in 22 IP), and Lowe will need to build on that success to regain his 2008 form.
In 2009, Lowe struck out more than a batter fewer per nine innings (5.13) and walked more than one additional batter (2.91) than in his last year as a Dodger. His groundball rate also dipped from 60% to 56%. A strong debut against the Cubs would go a long way toward alleviating some of the buyer's remorse that Frank Wren and the Braves were feeling this offseason.
This is how the Cubs' opening day lineup has fared against RHPs:
(SS) Ryan Theriot: .283/.347/.351
(RF) Kosuke Fukudome: .262/.372/.417
(1B) Derrek Lee: .285/.364/.505
(3B) Aramis Ramirez: .284/.341/.493
(CF) Marlon Byrd: .282/.342/.416
(LF) Alfonso Soriano: .278/.320/.508
(2B) Mike Fontenot: .272/.348/.435
(C) Geovany Soto: .257/.338/.456
(P) Carlos Zambrano: .220/.226/.367
Any time Derek Lowe takes the mound, there are going to be more than a few balls put in play. The Braves finished 22nd in UZR for 2009 and firgure to be about the same or slightly better in 2010. The Braves' infield defense will likely be a bit worse in 2010, with Troy Glaus replacing the league average defensive combo of Casey Kotchman and Adam LaRoche while Chipper Jones' defensive prowess continues to deteriorate with ever-advancing age. The outfield should be improved with Melky Cabrera and Jason Heyward replacing Garret Anderson, Ryan Church, and Jeff Francoeur. The outfield defense could be further improved by moving Melky to center and Mclouth to left, but that's a topic for another day.
Showing posts with label Javier Vazquez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Javier Vazquez. Show all posts
Monday, April 5, 2010
Monday, December 28, 2009
The Javier Vazquez trade - a week removed
The Braves get Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino, Mike Dunn and $500,000. The Yankees get Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan.
This trade dramatically reduces the Braves’ chances of making the playoffs in 2010 - by approxmiately 15%. That’s what makes this deal painful. What makes the deal somewhat more bearable is that there’s a decent chance that it improves the Braves’ payroll structure and overall talent in the long-term. To appropriately assess the merits and demerits of the trade, it will be necessary to consider the cost of making the trade against the potential benefit.
Let’s begin our analysis by considering a counterfactual hypothesis. Javier Vazquez is a member of the Atlanta Braves for the entire 2010 season. When his contract expires at the conclusion of the 2010 season, Frank Wren has to decide whether or not to offer him salary arbitration. For simplicity, let’s assume the Vazquez is offered and declines salary arbitration. Since Vazquez will likely be a Type A free agent, this would net the Braves two compensatory draft picks.
By going down this counterfactual path, we’re able to get a clear picture of the full cost of making this trade. The Braves gave up one year of Javier Vazquez plus two compensatory draft picks and team control of Boone Logan for three more years.
Research shows that these draft picks are worth about $8 million.
The lost value of Vazquez’ contribution is best measured in relation to the player(s) that will replace him. This would either be Kenshin Kawakami or Derek Lowe.
Kenshin Kawakami
[4.7 WAR (Vazquez’ 8-yr average) – 1.7 WAR (Kawakami’s 2009)] X $4.5 million (approximate value of marginal wins) = $13.5 million.
$13.5 million - $11.5 million (Javier Vazquez’ 2010 salary) = $2 million.
Derek Lowe
(4.7 WAR – 2.6 WAR) X $4.5 million = $9.45 million. $9.45 million - $11.5 million = -$2.05 million.
Bumping Lowe out of the rotation instead of trading Vazquez would have actually resulted in a net economic loss for the Braves, which may come as a surprise to the bloodthirsty masses that wanted to completely cut ties with Lowe at whatever cost necessary - but not to the discerning Screaming Indian reader.
We'll assume optimal decision-making on the part of Frank Wren (I know, I know), and say that the cost of losing Vazquez is $10 million because he would have bumped Kawakami, not Lowe out of the rotation.
Let’s estimate that Melky Cabrera will cost a total of $9 million during his three years remaining under team control. Dunn is very similar to Logan in skills, age, and service time, so there can’t be much expectation for profit there. For simplicity, we'll assume the following:
That gives us a final total of the cost of the Vazquez trade at $19 million.
Now, for the benefits.
The Braves got 6+ years of Arodys Vizcaino, 6+ years of Mike Dunn, 3 years of Melky Cabrera and $0.5 million.
Projecting Cabrera’s value in 2010 and beyond is difficult because of role uncertainty and limited (if NY-aggrandized) major league experience, but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll add much (if any) value to the line-up other than as a fourth outfielder and marginal contributor.
So whether this will be considered a good or bad trade may ultimately come down to whether Arodys Vizcaino reaches - or how nearly he reaches - his considerable ceiling. Much of the burden of recovering this $18.5 million will be placed on his his ability to outperform his pay grade if/when he makes it to the big leagues.
The Braves could rid themselves of a potential albatross of Francoeurian proportions if they were able to flip Melky Cabrera. Talking Chop suggests that Frank Wren would be well-advised to act as quickly as possible while Cabrera still has that brilliant Yankee sheen. I agree. Otherwise, Cabrera may be a candidate to become non-tendered in the coming years, given how much his salary could grow in arbitration. If he’s traded or non-tendered, this trade goes from ‘outside shot long-term win’ to ‘probable long-term win’ for the Braves.
This article can also be found at the Braves Baseball Blog.
This trade dramatically reduces the Braves’ chances of making the playoffs in 2010 - by approxmiately 15%. That’s what makes this deal painful. What makes the deal somewhat more bearable is that there’s a decent chance that it improves the Braves’ payroll structure and overall talent in the long-term. To appropriately assess the merits and demerits of the trade, it will be necessary to consider the cost of making the trade against the potential benefit.
Let’s begin our analysis by considering a counterfactual hypothesis. Javier Vazquez is a member of the Atlanta Braves for the entire 2010 season. When his contract expires at the conclusion of the 2010 season, Frank Wren has to decide whether or not to offer him salary arbitration. For simplicity, let’s assume the Vazquez is offered and declines salary arbitration. Since Vazquez will likely be a Type A free agent, this would net the Braves two compensatory draft picks.
By going down this counterfactual path, we’re able to get a clear picture of the full cost of making this trade. The Braves gave up one year of Javier Vazquez plus two compensatory draft picks and team control of Boone Logan for three more years.
Research shows that these draft picks are worth about $8 million.
The lost value of Vazquez’ contribution is best measured in relation to the player(s) that will replace him. This would either be Kenshin Kawakami or Derek Lowe.
Kenshin Kawakami
[4.7 WAR (Vazquez’ 8-yr average) – 1.7 WAR (Kawakami’s 2009)] X $4.5 million (approximate value of marginal wins) = $13.5 million.
$13.5 million - $11.5 million (Javier Vazquez’ 2010 salary) = $2 million.
Derek Lowe
(4.7 WAR – 2.6 WAR) X $4.5 million = $9.45 million. $9.45 million - $11.5 million = -$2.05 million.
Bumping Lowe out of the rotation instead of trading Vazquez would have actually resulted in a net economic loss for the Braves, which may come as a surprise to the bloodthirsty masses that wanted to completely cut ties with Lowe at whatever cost necessary - but not to the discerning Screaming Indian reader.
We'll assume optimal decision-making on the part of Frank Wren (I know, I know), and say that the cost of losing Vazquez is $10 million because he would have bumped Kawakami, not Lowe out of the rotation.
Let’s estimate that Melky Cabrera will cost a total of $9 million during his three years remaining under team control. Dunn is very similar to Logan in skills, age, and service time, so there can’t be much expectation for profit there. For simplicity, we'll assume the following:
Boone Logan - Mike Dunn = 0
That gives us a final total of the cost of the Vazquez trade at $19 million.
Now, for the benefits.
The Braves got 6+ years of Arodys Vizcaino, 6+ years of Mike Dunn, 3 years of Melky Cabrera and $0.5 million.
Projecting Cabrera’s value in 2010 and beyond is difficult because of role uncertainty and limited (if NY-aggrandized) major league experience, but it’s hard to imagine that he’ll add much (if any) value to the line-up other than as a fourth outfielder and marginal contributor.
So whether this will be considered a good or bad trade may ultimately come down to whether Arodys Vizcaino reaches - or how nearly he reaches - his considerable ceiling. Much of the burden of recovering this $18.5 million will be placed on his his ability to outperform his pay grade if/when he makes it to the big leagues.
The Braves could rid themselves of a potential albatross of Francoeurian proportions if they were able to flip Melky Cabrera. Talking Chop suggests that Frank Wren would be well-advised to act as quickly as possible while Cabrera still has that brilliant Yankee sheen. I agree. Otherwise, Cabrera may be a candidate to become non-tendered in the coming years, given how much his salary could grow in arbitration. If he’s traded or non-tendered, this trade goes from ‘outside shot long-term win’ to ‘probable long-term win’ for the Braves.
This article can also be found at the Braves Baseball Blog.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Vazquez unlikely to waive no-trade clause
Braves ace Javier Vazquez has been bandied about the MLB trade rumor mill in the past couple of days, mostly related to talks between GM Frank Wren and the Los Angeles Angels. Mark Bowman confirms that sources close to Vazquez maintain that he would be unlikely to waive the clause in his contract that prohibits the Braves from trading him to a west coast team.
This is good news for Braves fans, as the Angels don't have much to offer that would compensate Atlanta for the value that Vazquez should bring to the pitching staff in 2010.
This is good news for Braves fans, as the Angels don't have much to offer that would compensate Atlanta for the value that Vazquez should bring to the pitching staff in 2010.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Braves expected to shop Lowe, hold on to Vazquez
MLB.com reports that the Braves will look to unload Derek Lowe and his contract via trade:
As I see it, the Braves have four obvious choices for the 2010 rotation.
SP1) Javier Vazquez
SP2) Tim Hudson
SP3) Tommy Hanson
SP4) Jair Jurrjens
The fifth spot is where the Braves have some room to maneuver. Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and Kris Medlen could all be viable options. Depending on what happens with the bullpen in the offseason, it might be worth giving Medlen a serious look as the fifth starter during spring training. Alternatively, he might be paired with Hanson as a long reliever to help manage the latter's workload.
I suppose the point I'm trying to get across is that there are a lot of places Frank Wren could go from here. It's encouraging that he's looking at trading his most expensive, least effective pitcher (though I assume the Braves would end up eating a significant portion of his salary in any trade).
In order to retain the financial flexibility to keep the club's rotation strong and also address the needs at first base, outfield and the back end of the bullpen, Wren is expected to explore the possibility of trading Lowe, who is owed $45 million over the final three years of his contract.
"It's an obvious position of strength and when you're looking to improve your club, you're looking at where you can improve it at the expense of some other area," Wren said. "We'll see when we come out of our planning meetings what we feel is most appropriate."
Cox, who will join Wren and the club's other top scouts and administrators in Orlando next week for the planning meetings, certainly doesn't buy into the possibility that the team could opt to trade Vazquez, who went 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and notched 238 strikeouts in his first season with the Braves this year.
"I haven't ever thought about trading him," Cox said. "I know we've got him for one more year. You'd have to get an awful lot."
As I see it, the Braves have four obvious choices for the 2010 rotation.
SP1) Javier Vazquez
SP2) Tim Hudson
SP3) Tommy Hanson
SP4) Jair Jurrjens
The fifth spot is where the Braves have some room to maneuver. Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, and Kris Medlen could all be viable options. Depending on what happens with the bullpen in the offseason, it might be worth giving Medlen a serious look as the fifth starter during spring training. Alternatively, he might be paired with Hanson as a long reliever to help manage the latter's workload.
I suppose the point I'm trying to get across is that there are a lot of places Frank Wren could go from here. It's encouraging that he's looking at trading his most expensive, least effective pitcher (though I assume the Braves would end up eating a significant portion of his salary in any trade).
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
Braves rout Padres 9-2, Vazquez gets rare run support
The Braves entered Tuesday night's game against the San Diego Padres as they have entered most games of late: badly needing a win to stay in the wild card race.
The top of the fouth began auspiciously for Atlanta as three straight singles by Garret Anderson, Yunel Escobar, and Adam LaRoche loaded up the bases with no outs. But an excellent opportunity to have a big inning was squandered when Matt Diaz hit into a run-scoring double play. Javier Vazquez then struck out to end the inning, stranding Yunel Escobar on third and allowing Tim Stauffer to escape relatively unscathed and down to Atlanta just 2-1.
The Padres tied it up at two apiece in the bottom of the fourth on a Chase Headley double that drove in Will Venable from second base. At this point the narrative seemed all too familiar - squandered opportunities by the Braves lineup hanging the pitching staff out to dry.
But the Braves deviated from the script and answered right back in the next frame as Martin Prado hit a solo shot to untie the game. In the top of the sixth, Matt Diaz redeemed his bases loaded double play groundout with a two-run homerun that drove in Adam LaRoche, putting the Braves up 5-2. The Braves never looked back, tacking on four more runs before the night was over to lock up a 9-2 victory.
Javier Vazquez turned in his customarily dominant performance, striking out six, walking two, surrendering six hits, and allowing just two runs to cross the plate in seven innings pitched. Despite lowering his ERA to 2.99 on the season, Vazquez picked up just his ninth win on the season, a testament to the poor run support he's received all year long. Tuesday, however, was different. Atlanta scored seven of their nine runs before he was pulled from the game.
Elsewhere, the Rockies beat the Phillies 8-3, leaving the Braves stagnant at 5.5 games back of Colorado in the wild card race, but drawing the Braves to within 6.5 games of the NL East leading Phillies. With the Braves set to face the Phillies nine more times over the season's remainder, first place in the NL East doesn't seem as unattainable for Atlanta as it did a few weeks ago, recent struggles notwithstanding.
Javier Vazquez continues to be typecast as "stopper"
For the second time in as many games the Braves will call upon the studly Javier Vazquez to terminate a losing skid that has seen Atlanta fall 5.5 games out of the wild card spot. There is little I can say about Javier Vazquez's performance in 2009 (140 IP, 158 K, 28 BB, 3.01 ERA) that can't be ascertained from his ridiculous stat line. Thankfully, the trade deadline came and went with no action on the curios rumors that Frank Wren was shopping the Braves' ace.
Vazquez will once again have the added benefit of facing an inferior opponent in Tim Stauffer. The 27-year-old Padre is no slouch (21 IP, 16 K, 5 BB in majors; 2.14 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 in minors), but he's also no Vazquez.
Still, the Braves' considerable advantage in the starting pitching matchup will be of little consequence if their lineup continues to score fewer than 3 runs per game as they have over their last seven contests.
Vazquez will once again have the added benefit of facing an inferior opponent in Tim Stauffer. The 27-year-old Padre is no slouch (21 IP, 16 K, 5 BB in majors; 2.14 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 in minors), but he's also no Vazquez.
Still, the Braves' considerable advantage in the starting pitching matchup will be of little consequence if their lineup continues to score fewer than 3 runs per game as they have over their last seven contests.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
Braves call upon ace Javier Vazquez to end 2-game skid
Javier Vazquez will be playing the role of stopper on Thursday night against the Florida Marlins, hoping to reverse a two-game slide that has put the Atlanta Braves four games back of San Francisco, the NL Wild Card leader.
There's no reason to think that Vazquez won't be up to the task. Vazquez has taken very well to his return to the senior circuit this season. In 133 IP, Vazquez has struck out a remarkable 150 and walked just 27, yielding an ERA of 2.98. Some are still calling for Vazquez to be traded, but why would a team just four games out of a playoff berth deal away its best pitcher?
At just 24 years of age, Vazquez's opponent, Rick Vanden Hurk takes the hill with very little MLB experience. In his limited service, Vanden Hurk has been quite wild. In 11 IP this season, he's struck out 7 and walked 5. Vanden Hurk is also very prone to the longball (48% flyball rate).
Given the disparity in the pitching matchup, it's not unreasonable for Braves fans to be counting on a win tonight - but baseball's a funny game.
There's no reason to think that Vazquez won't be up to the task. Vazquez has taken very well to his return to the senior circuit this season. In 133 IP, Vazquez has struck out a remarkable 150 and walked just 27, yielding an ERA of 2.98. Some are still calling for Vazquez to be traded, but why would a team just four games out of a playoff berth deal away its best pitcher?
At just 24 years of age, Vazquez's opponent, Rick Vanden Hurk takes the hill with very little MLB experience. In his limited service, Vanden Hurk has been quite wild. In 11 IP this season, he's struck out 7 and walked 5. Vanden Hurk is also very prone to the longball (48% flyball rate).
Given the disparity in the pitching matchup, it's not unreasonable for Braves fans to be counting on a win tonight - but baseball's a funny game.
Friday, July 24, 2009
Javier Vazquez without best stuff, Braves still get it done
Last night, Javier Vazquez didn't dominate the Brewers in the way he's dominated the rest of the Naitonal League this year, giving up 4 ER in 7 innings while striking out nine and walking three (this was just the fourth time this season he'd issued four walks in a game).
Luckily, the Braves' suddenly potent bats (the Braves have scored 5.75 runs per game in the post-Frenchy era) picked him up by plating 9 runs, including a Chipper Jones solo shot in the 6th that put them up for good and two-run homer by Nate McLouth in the top of the eight that put the game out of reach.
Yesterday, I wondered if Manny Parra had re-harnessed the considerable skill he displayed in the second half of 2009. Clearly, he hasn't. His night was done after throwing 106 pitches in only five innings, only 63 of which were strikes. He issued three walks, struck out three, gave up 10 hits, and allowed 4 runs to cross the plate.
Elsewhere, the Giants beat the Rockies 3-1, leaving the Braves 2.5 games back (and three losses back) of Colorado and San Francisco, who are currently tied for the wild card spot.
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