Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Player Profile: Peter Moylan

The Braves avoided salary arbitration with Peter Moylan on Tuesday by re-signing him to a one-year, $1.5 million contract.

The 31-year-old right-handed reliever had a career-best season in 2009, his first since he missed all of 2008 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Moylan is a side-armer who feeds batters a steady diet of fastballs with a slider thrown in about once every four pitches.

To be worth the $1.5 million he is owed in 2010, Moylan would need to provide value equal to 0.43 Wins Above Replacemnt (assuming a marginal win value of $3.5 million). Peter's a good bet to be at least that good in 2010, even if some regression from a career-best season (1.5 WAR in 2009) is to be expected.

In keeping with what we've seen from post-TJers in th past, Moylan had some control issues in the first half of the season, walking batters at a rate of 5.4 batters every nine innings. But a ground ball rate of 65% over that same period was his salvation, while his control improved (3.6 BB/9) in the second half while still inducing a high rate of grounders on balls in play (61%).

Here's what the leading projection systems have to say about Moylan's 2010:

Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster: 73 IP, 7.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 64% GB Rate, 3.60 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Bill James Handbook: 78 IP, 7.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 3.58 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

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